Homa, Max vs Smith, Jordan prediction for October 30, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Smith, Jordan 19 - Homa, Max 30. Homa, Max is favored with a 53.0% win probability. The spread is -0.02.
Smith, Jordan
+0.72
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • VidantaWorld Mexico Open
Homa, Max
+0.63
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Smith, JordanHoma, Max
+101
Best Odds
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Homa, Max
233037
Smith, Jordan
121926
Tournament Context
Event
VidantaWorld Mexico Open
Course
Vidanta Vallarta
Field
119 players
Wind
9 mph
Temp
88°F
Conditions
harder (+0.4)
Player Profile — Homa, Max
Strokes Gained
+0.63/round
Above Avg
Course Fit
poor
-0.166 SG adj
Expected Finish
30th / 119
Matchup Analysis
Homa, Max
+0.63 SG
EF 30th
Skill Gap
-0.02 SG/round
essentially a coin flip
Smith, Jordan
+0.72 SG
EF 19th · Above Avg
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. This game was simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded GOLF 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the GOLF 2026 season report card.