Keefer, Johnny vs Smalley, Alex prediction for October 8, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Smalley, Alex 0 - Keefer, Johnny 25. Keefer, Johnny is favored with a 67.8% win probability. The spread is -0.24.
Smalley, Alex
+0.00
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • Baycurrent Classic
Keefer, Johnny
+0.54
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Smalley, AlexKeefer, Johnny
-111
Best Odds
Tournament Context
Event
Baycurrent Classic
Course
Yokohama Country Club (West Course)
Field
72 players
Wind
5 mph
Temp
75°F
Conditions
normal (+0.2)
Player Profile — Keefer, Johnny
Strokes Gained
+0.54/round
Above Avg
Course Fit
good
+0.152 SG adj
Expected Finish
25th / 72
Matchup Analysis
Keefer, Johnny
+0.54 SG
EF 25th
Skill Gap
-0.24 SG/round
tight skill advantage for Smalley, Alex
Smalley, Alex
+0.00 SG
EF 0th · Tour Avg
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded GOLF 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the GOLF 2026 season report card.