Lawrence, Thriston vs Meronk, Adrian prediction for October 13, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Meronk, Adrian 105 - Lawrence, Thriston 97. Lawrence, Thriston is favored with a 52.5% win probability. Lawrence, Thriston wins more simulations despite the lower average score. The spread is -0.19.
Meronk, Adrian
-0.29
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • DP World India Championship
Lawrence, Thriston
-0.48
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Meronk, AdrianLawrence, Thriston
+100
Best Odds
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Lawrence, Thriston
9097104
Meronk, Adrian
98105112
Tournament Context
Event
DP World India Championship
Course
Delhi GC
Field
144 players
Wind
5 mph
Temp
86°F
Conditions
normal (+0.2)
Player Profile — Lawrence, Thriston
Strokes Gained
-0.48/round
Below Avg
Course Fit
good
+0.247 SG adj
Expected Finish
97th / 144
Matchup Analysis
Lawrence, Thriston
-0.48 SG
EF 97th
Skill Gap
-0.19 SG/round
tight skill advantage for Meronk, Adrian
Meronk, Adrian
-0.29 SG
EF 105th · Below Avg
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded GOLF 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the GOLF 2026 season report card.