Thompson, Davis vs Rodgers, Patrick prediction for October 4, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Rodgers, Patrick 27 - Thompson, Davis 44. Thompson, Davis is favored with a 61.7% win probability. The spread is 0.78.
Rodgers, Patrick
-0.18
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • Bank of Utah Championship
Thompson, Davis
+0.57
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Rodgers, PatrickThompson, Davis
-140
Best Odds
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Thompson, Davis
374451
Rodgers, Patrick
202734
Tournament Context
Event
Bank of Utah Championship
Course
Black Desert Resort
Field
118 players
Wind
9 mph
Temp
92°F
Conditions
normal (+0.1)
Player Profile — Thompson, Davis
Strokes Gained
+0.57/round
Above Avg
Course Fit
neutral
+0.015 SG adj
Expected Finish
44th / 118
Matchup Analysis
Thompson, Davis
+0.57 SG
EF 44th
Skill Gap
+0.78 SG/round
meaningful skill advantage for Thompson, Davis
Rodgers, Patrick
-0.18 SG
EF 27th · Below Avg
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded GOLF 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the GOLF 2026 season report card.