Todd, Brendon vs Pavon, Matthieu prediction for October 4, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Pavon, Matthieu 0 - Todd, Brendon 66. Pavon, Matthieu is favored with a 57.8% win probability. Pavon, Matthieu wins more simulations despite the lower average score. The spread is 0.26.
Pavon, Matthieu
+0.00
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • Bank of Utah Championship
Todd, Brendon
+0.00
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Pavon, MatthieuTodd, Brendon
+180
Best Odds
Tournament Context
Event
Bank of Utah Championship
Course
Black Desert Resort
Field
118 players
Wind
9 mph
Temp
92°F
Conditions
normal (+0.1)
Matchup Analysis
Todd, Brendon
+0.00 SG
EF 66th
Skill Gap
+0.26 SG/round
tight skill advantage for Todd, Brendon
Pavon, Matthieu
+0.00 SG
EF 0th · Tour Avg
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded GOLF 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the GOLF 2026 season report card.