BAL vs DET prediction for July 30, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects DET 3.5 - BAL 3.5. DET is favored with a 51.4% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 7.0 total runs.
DET
3.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
BAL
3.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
DETBAL
-1.5
Run Line (DET)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 51.0% (2,978 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
BAL
245
DET
245
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Trevor Rogers L
BAL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF45%94 mph21% whiff
CH22%87 mph22% whiff
ST13%78 mph28% whiff
Tarik Skubal L
DET
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF36%97 mph22% whiff
CH25%87 mph50% whiff
SI20%97 mph15% whiff
Weather Impact
Comerica Park
81°F13 mph wind
HR: 1.097 Total: 1.053
thin air, 11mph out
Bullpen Comparison
BAL
3.93ERA
3.96FIP
8.66K/9
3.39BB/9
1.25WHIP
DET
4.08ERA
4.40FIP
8.53K/9
3.96BB/9
1.35WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
BAL F5
1.7 runs
38.6% win
DET F5
1.8 runs
40.7% win
F5 Total
3.5
NRFI
65.0%
YRFI
35.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.71
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
BAL8 injured
Chris Bassitt SP60-DAY-IL
Samuel Basallo C10-DAY-IL
Adley Rutschman C10-DAY-IL
Ryan Mountcastle 1B60-DAY-IL
Ryan Helsley RP60-DAY-IL
Blaze Alexander 3B10-DAY-IL
+2 more
DET8 injured
Jack Flaherty SP15-DAY-IL
Kerry Carpenter RF10-DAY-IL
Jackson Jobe SP60-DAY-IL
Brant Hurter RP60-DAY-IL
Burch Smith RP60-DAY-IL
Will Vest RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
More Projections Today
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →