TEX vs TB prediction for July 30, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects TB 3.4 - TEX 3.9. TEX is favored with a 52.6% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 7.3 total runs.
TB
3.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
TEX
3.9
Projected Score
Win Probability
TBTEX
-1.5
Run Line (TB)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.1% (2,978 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TEX
246
TB
135
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Cole Winn R
TEX
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FC31%91 mph16% whiff
FF30%95 mph22% whiff
SL22%86 mph41% whiff
Shane McClanahan L
TB
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF38%96 mph14% whiff
CH29%87 mph37% whiff
SL19%88 mph28% whiff
Weather Impact
Tropicana Field
74°F22 mph windRoof: closed
HR: 1.000 Total: 1.000
Indoor (neutral)
Bullpen Comparison
TEX
4.25ERA
4.23FIP
8.29K/9
3.49BB/9
1.31WHIP
TB
3.85ERA
4.03FIP
8.93K/9
3.11BB/9
1.18WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TEX F5
2.2 runs
45.4% win
TB F5
1.9 runs
36.3% win
F5 Total
4.1
NRFI
61.3%
YRFI
38.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.78
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
TEX8 injured
Jose Corniell RP60-DAY-IL
Danny Jansen C60-DAY-IL
Corey Seager SS10-DAY-IL
Jordan Montgomery SP60-DAY-IL
Josh Jung 3B10-DAY-IL
Cody Bradford SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
TB8 injured
Cole Sulser RP15-DAY-IL
Manuel Rodriguez RP60-DAY-IL
Gavin Lux LF60-DAY-IL
Jake Fraley RF10-DAY-IL
Steven Wilson RP60-DAY-IL
Edwin Uceta RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
More Projections Today
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →