FINAL: SD 1 — SF 4. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected SD 3.3 - SF 2.9 (SD at 54.8% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 6.2 total runs.
SD
3.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
SF
2.9
Projected Score
Win Probability
SDSF
-1.5
Run Line (SD)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.5% (3,107 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SF
135
SD
135
Projected
SD 3.3 — SF 2.9
Actual
SD 1 — SF 4
Pick Results
SF @ SD NRFInrfiLOSS-1.00u
Weather Impact
PETCO Park
74°F5 mph wind
HR: 1.019 Total: 1.009
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
SF
4.41ERA
4.40FIP
8.28K/9
4.58BB/9
1.43WHIP
SD
3.16ERA
3.76FIP
9.51K/9
3.68BB/9
1.24WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-37.9% EV
-102
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
+25.6% EV
-120
F5 UNDER 4.5
+19.5% EV
-110
NRFI NRFI
+17.2% EV
-108
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-13.1% EV
+118
ML HOME
-9.0% EV
-167
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SF F5
1.5 runs
34.1% win
SD F5
1.8 runs
44.0% win
F5 Total
3.3
NRFI
65.8%
YRFI
34.2%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.63
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.8
Over 0.5 HR
82%
Over 1.5 HR
52%
No HR
18%
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
0.0 K projected
SF | K/9: 0.0
0.0 K projected
SD | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
SF8 injured
Jonah Cox CF10-DAY-IL
Matt Chapman 3B10-DAY-IL
Casey Schmitt LF10-DAY-IL
Trevor McDonald SP15-DAY-IL
Harrison Bader CF10-DAY-IL
Victor Bericoto RF10-DAY-IL
+2 more
SD8 injured
Joe Musgrove SP60-DAY-IL
Lucas Giolito SP15-DAY-IL
Nick Pivetta SP60-DAY-IL
Miguel Andujar DH10-DAY-IL
David Morgan RP15-DAY-IL
Samad Taylor LF10-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -2
SF TBD pitcher (unknown starter) makes this game unanalyzable. Cannot assess pitcher quality, arsenal, or fatigue status. Recommend SKIP until confirmed starter.
Key Factors
- SF starter: TBD (UNKNOWN) — cannot assess
- SD starter: JP Sears 4.17 ERA, C+ grade, weak arm (19.8% K-rate)
- Park factor: Petco -0.9 (10% run suppression)
- Model total: 6.64, market 8.5 — edge driven by park factor and SD SP weakness, not SF confirmation
- NRFI edge: +13.7% (58.6% prob) — highest-confidence edge on this game
Risk Factors
- DATA INTEGRITY FAILURE: TBD pitcher makes model unreliable
- Petco Park suppression is real but market may already price this correctly
- Without knowing SF starter, cannot assess bullpen-era matchup dynamics
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
SD 54.8%
-13.1 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-13.1 pts
Total
8.5
+25.6 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.