SF vs SD prediction for July 30, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects SD 3.9 - SF 3.1. SD is favored with a 57.6% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 7.0 total runs.
SD
3.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
SF
3.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
SDSF
-1.5
Run Line (SD)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.5% (2,978 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SF
135
SD
246
Starting Pitcher Matchup
R TBD
SF
JP Sears L
SD
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF37%93 mph19% whiff
CH22%85 mph22% whiff
ST15%80 mph30% whiff
Weather Impact
PETCO Park
75°F6 mph wind
HR: 1.013 Total: 1.005
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
SF
4.41ERA
4.40FIP
8.28K/9
4.58BB/9
1.43WHIP
SD
3.16ERA
3.76FIP
9.51K/9
3.68BB/9
1.24WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SF F5
1.7 runs
34.6% win
SD F5
2.2 runs
47.0% win
F5 Total
3.9
NRFI
63.8%
YRFI
36.2%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.70
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
SF8 injured
Matt Chapman 3B10-DAY-IL
Casey Schmitt LF10-DAY-IL
Trevor McDonald SP15-DAY-IL
Harrison Bader CF10-DAY-IL
Victor Bericoto RF10-DAY-IL
Jonah Cox CF10-DAY-IL
+2 more
SD8 injured
Joe Musgrove SP60-DAY-IL
Lucas Giolito SP15-DAY-IL
Nick Pivetta SP60-DAY-IL
Miguel Andujar DH10-DAY-IL
David Morgan RP15-DAY-IL
Samad Taylor LF10-DAY-IL
+2 more
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
More Projections Today
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →