MIA vs NYM prediction for July 30, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects NYM 3.4 - MIA 3.5. NYM is favored with a 50.7% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.0. Model projects 6.9 total runs.
NYM
3.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.0
MIA
3.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
NYMMIA
-1.5
Run Line (NYM)
7.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 51.4% (3,107 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
MIA
245
NYM
135
Projected
NYM 3.4 — MIA 3.5
Actual
NYM 4 — MIA 2
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Eury Pérez R
MIA
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF43%98 mph20% whiff
SL15%88 mph41% whiff
ST14%84 mph36% whiff
Nolan McLean R
NYM
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI33%95 mph13% whiff
FF20%96 mph25% whiff
ST15%85 mph23% whiff
Weather Impact
Citi Field
74°F2 mph wind
HR: 1.018 Total: 1.009
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
MIA
4.10ERA
3.72FIP
9.49K/9
4.04BB/9
1.21WHIP
NYM
3.56ERA
3.85FIP
9.31K/9
3.52BB/9
1.23WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
MIA F5
1.8 runs
36.6% win
NYM F5
2.0 runs
44.6% win
F5 Total
3.7
NRFI
65.0%
YRFI
35.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.69
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
MIA8 injured
Andrew Nardi RP60-DAY-IL
Leo Jimenez 3BDAY-TO-DAY
Owen Caissie RF10-DAY-IL
Michael Petersen RPDAY-TO-DAY
Max Meyer SP15-DAY-IL
Josh Ekness RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
NYM7 injured
Clay Holmes SP60-DAY-IL
Juan Soto LF10-DAY-IL
Justin Hagenman RP60-DAY-IL
Mark Vientos 1B10-DAY-IL
Dedniel Nunez RP60-DAY-IL
Reed Garrett RP60-DAY-IL
+1 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN
Model projects 6.93 runs (under 7.0 at 56.5%, 10.3% edge). Pitching is evenly matched (McLean 3.59 ERA vs Pérez 3.84 ERA), weather neutral (74.5°F, 1.9 mph wind). Edge sits in 10-15% bucket which has performed OK (a supportive track record by edge), but NRFI is stronger play (+3.1% edge, 62.9% prob). Lean under on full game, but prefer NRFI if available.
Key Factors
- SP quality: McLean 3.59 ERA (B grade) vs Pérez 3.84 ERA (B- grade) — evenly matched, no mismatch
- K-rates: McLean 28.6%, Pérez 26.1% — both solid command, neither carries special edge
- Model total: 6.93, market 7.0 (0.07 run spread = essentially even)
- Under edge: 10.3% (model 56.5% prob) — marginal edge historically mixed, weak confidence
- NRFI edge: 3.1% (model 62.9% prob) — historically well-supported territory (57.6% historical WR, +0.05u over 39 bets)
Risk Factors
- Evenly matched SP quality means model and market likely agree. Avoid full-game under at only 10.3% edge.
- NRFI has better historical backing; if taking this game, make it NRFI-focused
- MIA slightly weak offense (Griffin Conine best bat at 29.2% HR prob), but 7.0 total is not extreme
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.