WSH vs ATL prediction for July 30, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects ATL 6.6 - WSH 5.9. ATL is favored with a 55.6% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 9.5. Model projects 12.5 total runs.
ATL
6.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.5
WSH
5.9
Projected Score
Win Probability
ATLWSH
-1.5
Run Line (ATL)
9.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 56.8% (2,978 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
WSH
468
ATL
579
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Jake Irvin R
WSH
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF28%93 mph21% whiff
CU26%78 mph41% whiff
SI24%92 mph6% whiff
Grant Holmes R
ATL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SL36%85 mph37% whiff
FF30%94 mph12% whiff
SI11%93 mph15% whiff
Weather Impact
Truist Park
89°F8 mph wind
HR: 1.095 Total: 1.050
thin air, 7mph out
Bullpen Comparison
WSH
5.73ERA
5.34FIP
8.76K/9
4.95BB/9
1.58WHIP
ATL
3.17ERA
3.43FIP
9.57K/9
3.05BB/9
1.11WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
WSH F5
3.4 runs
39.8% win
ATL F5
3.8 runs
49.2% win
F5 Total
7.2
NRFI
44.4%
YRFI
55.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.37
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
WSH8 injured
Jake Irvin SP60-DAY-IL
Brad Lord RP15-DAY-IL
PJ Poulin RP15-DAY-IL
Richard Lovelady RP60-DAY-IL
Drew Millas C10-DAY-IL
Mitchell Parker RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
ATL8 injured
Sean Murphy C60-DAY-IL
Spencer Schwellenbach SP60-DAY-IL
Spencer Strider SP60-DAY-IL
Robert Suarez RP15-DAY-IL
Ha-Seong Kim SS10-DAY-IL
Joe Jimenez RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
More Projections Today
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →