FINAL: ATL 5 — WSH 4. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected ATL 6.3 - WSH 5.0 (ATL at 58.0% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 9.5. Model projects 11.3 total runs.
ATL
6.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.5
WSH
5.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
ATLWSH
-1.5
Run Line (ATL)
9.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
WSH L5ATL W5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.9% (3,107 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
WSH
357
ATL
468
Projected
ATL 6.3 — WSH 5.0
Actual
ATL 5 — WSH 4
Pick Results
WSH @ ATL F5 OVER 5.5f5WIN+0.47u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Jake Irvin R
WSH
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF28%93 mph21% whiff
CU26%78 mph41% whiff
SI24%92 mph6% whiff
Grant Holmes R
ATL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SL36%85 mph37% whiff
FF30%94 mph12% whiff
SI11%93 mph15% whiff
Weather Impact
Truist Park
88°F8 mph wind
HR: 1.097 Total: 1.052
thin air, 8mph out
Bullpen Comparison
WSH
5.73ERA
5.34FIP
8.76K/9
4.95BB/9
1.58WHIP
ATL
3.17ERA
3.43FIP
9.57K/9
3.05BB/9
1.11WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL UNDER 9.5
-19.2% EV
+100
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-13.0% EV
-154
F5_ML AWAY
-11.1% EV
+110
TOTAL OVER 9.5
+8.4% EV
-122
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
+7.7% EV
+128
F5 OVER 5.5
+5.4% EV
-106
First 5 Innings & NRFI
WSH F5
2.9 runs
36.1% win
ATL F5
3.7 runs
52.0% win
F5 Total
6.6
NRFI
40.9%
YRFI
59.1%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.41
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
4.1
Over 0.5 HR
98%
Over 1.5 HR
91%
No HR
2%
James Wood WSH30.0%
ISO: 0.305 | Barrel: 16.2% | vs Grant Holmes | Platoon: 1.12x
CJ Abrams WSH30.0%
ISO: 0.296 | Barrel: 15.5% | vs Grant Holmes | Platoon: 1.12x
Matt Olson ATL30.0%
ISO: 0.293 | Barrel: 15.0% | vs Jake Irvin | Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Jake Irvin
0.0 K projected
WSH | K/9: 0.0
Grant Holmes
0.0 K projected
ATL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
WSH8 injured
Brad Lord RP15-DAY-IL
PJ Poulin RP15-DAY-IL
Richard Lovelady RP60-DAY-IL
Drew Millas C10-DAY-IL
Mitchell Parker RP60-DAY-IL
DJ Herz SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
ATL8 injured
Sean Murphy C60-DAY-IL
Ha-Seong Kim SS10-DAY-IL
Spencer Schwellenbach SP60-DAY-IL
Spencer Strider SP60-DAY-IL
Robert Suarez RP15-DAY-IL
Joe Jimenez RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1
Model projects 11.31 runs (over 9.5 at 59.6%, 8.4% edge), but this is a classic overs trap. Model favors home team (ATL 58% win prob, -4% edge), yet predictor framework relies on over-totals in thin air, high temp scenarios. Truist Park +1.052 multiplier + 88°F + 8.1 mph out wind is not enough to push a ~6-run-per-team pace. Market 9.5 is fair; model's 11.31 projection inflates artificial scoring.
Key Factors
- Pitcher quality: Irvin 5.65 ERA (25.4% K) > Holmes 4.09 ERA (19.4% K). Mixed mismatch, slight K-advantage WSH.
- Park factor: Truist +1.052 (thin air, 2192 ft, HR +1.097) — inflates ~0.5 runs
- Weather: 88°F, 8.1 mph out wind (strong out), 30% humidity — scoring boost ~0.5 runs
- Model total: 11.31, market 9.5 (+1.81 run gap, 19.1% over projection)
- Over edge: 8.4% (model 59.6% prob) — weak edge historically mixed, historically unreliable
Risk Factors
- Model inflates thin-air over totals systematically. Calibration data shows over bets: a supportive track record (D grade) vs unders a supportive track record (D grade).
- Both SPs have sub-5% season improvement recently; Holmes 4.09 is mid-tier, Irvin 5.65 is weak. Model's 58% ATL win prob is reasonable, but 11.31 run projection is inflated.
- Thin-air parks are consistently overpriced in model (Coors +15% multiplier effect is real; Truist +5% is modest and likely captures correctly by market already)
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
ATL 58.0%
+7.7 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+7.7 pts
Total
9.5
+8.4 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.