BOS vs OAK prediction for July 30, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects OAK 4.2 - BOS 5.1. BOS is favored with a 53.4% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 10.5. Model projects 9.3 total runs.
OAK
4.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 10.5
BOS
5.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
OAKBOS
+1.5
Run Line (OAK)
10.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 54.6% (2,978 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
BOS
357
OAK
246
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Sonny Gray R
BOS
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI21%92 mph13% whiff
FC20%88 mph15% whiff
ST19%85 mph36% whiff
R TBD
OAK
Weather Impact
Sutter Health Park
94°F10 mph wind
HR: 1.051 Total: 1.026
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
BOS
3.64ERA
3.83FIP
8.87K/9
2.95BB/9
1.26WHIP
OAK
4.84ERA
4.34FIP
9.77K/9
4.22BB/9
1.48WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
BOS F5
2.5 runs
43.5% win
OAK F5
2.3 runs
41.2% win
F5 Total
4.8
NRFI
57.5%
YRFI
42.5%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.86
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
BOS8 injured
Curtis Mead 3B10-DAY-IL
Marcelo Mayer 2B10-DAY-IL
Garrett Crochet SP60-DAY-IL
Zack Kelly RP60-DAY-IL
Trevor Story SS60-DAY-IL
Isiah Kiner-Falefa 2B10-DAY-IL
+2 more
OAK8 injured
Shea Langeliers C10-DAY-IL
J.T. Ginn SP15-DAY-IL
Luis Severino SP60-DAY-IL
Zack Gelof 3B10-DAY-IL
Jeffrey Springs SPDAY-TO-DAY
Mark Leiter Jr. RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
More Projections Today
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →