NYY vs CWS prediction for July 30, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects CWS 3.6 - NYY 4.1. NYY is favored with a 51.8% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 7.7 total runs.
CWS
3.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
NYY
4.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
CWSNYY
+1.5
Run Line (CWS)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 54.1% (2,978 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
NYY
246
CWS
246
SOLID
0.5u
NYY @ CWS NRFI
Edge: 3.2% | Odds: -128
The Yankees are missing Aaron Judge (60-day IL ribs), Cody Bellinger (10-day IL hamstring), and Giancarlo Stanton (10-day IL calf) - a -2 to -3 run degradation per the league brief. This lineup erosion is the primary driver of the NRFI edge, not pitcher matchup strength. Sean Burke (pitcher_quality 1.147) is actually the stronger starter, but Ryan Weathers (pitcher_quality 1.019) is serviceable. The model projects 4.13 away runs and 3.58 home runs (total 7.71), below the 8.0 market line. Burke's 26.9% K-rate and 0.573 overall grade provide competent early-inning control, while Weathers' 26.1% K-rate and 0.573 grade match that floor. The 3.2% edge at -128 odds reflects market skepticism (56.1% implied NRFI probability) versus the model's 58% lean. Sim score 4.1-3.6 shows a low-scoring first five, driven primarily by Yankees' personnel losses rather than elite pitching.
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Ryan Weathers L
NYY
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF26%96 mph16% whiff
CH24%86 mph36% whiff
ST20%81 mph40% whiff
Sean Burke R
CWS
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF37%95 mph22% whiff
KC21%80 mph25% whiff
SL18%87 mph31% whiff
Weather Impact
Rate Field
78°F7 mph wind
HR: 1.009 Total: 1.002
thin air, 5mph in
Bullpen Comparison
NYY
3.10ERA
3.72FIP
8.56K/9
3.36BB/9
1.19WHIP
CWS
3.94ERA
4.14FIP
9.21K/9
4.52BB/9
1.35WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
NYY F5
2.2 runs
43.9% win
CWS F5
2.1 runs
39.3% win
F5 Total
4.3
NRFI
60.0%
YRFI
40.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.81
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
NYY5 injured
Aaron Judge RF60-DAY-IL
Cody Bellinger LF10-DAY-IL
Clarke Schmidt SP60-DAY-IL
Carlos Rodon SP15-DAY-IL
Giancarlo Stanton DH10-DAY-IL
CWSHealthy
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
More Projections Today
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →