FINAL: CWS 2 — NYY 1. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected CWS 3.3 - NYY 3.8 (NYY at 52.1% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 7.1 total runs.
CWS
3.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
NYY
3.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
CWSNYY
+1.5
Run Line (CWS)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.8% (3,107 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
NYY
246
CWS
135
Projected
CWS 3.3 — NYY 3.8
Actual
CWS 2 — NYY 1
Pick Results
NYY @ CWS NRFInrfiWIN+0.39u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Ryan Weathers L
NYY
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF26%96 mph16% whiff
CH24%86 mph36% whiff
ST20%81 mph40% whiff
Sean Burke R
CWS
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF37%95 mph22% whiff
KC21%80 mph25% whiff
SL18%87 mph31% whiff
Weather Impact
Rate Field
78°F7 mph wind
HR: 1.013 Total: 1.005
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
NYY
3.10ERA
3.72FIP
8.56K/9
3.36BB/9
1.19WHIP
CWS
3.94ERA
4.14FIP
9.21K/9
4.52BB/9
1.35WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL OVER 7.5
-15.6% EV
-110
F5_ML HOME
-10.2% EV
-128
ML HOME
-8.5% EV
-116
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-7.6% EV
-204
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
+6.6% EV
-110
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
+1.7% EV
+168
First 5 Innings & NRFI
NYY F5
2.0 runs
41.7% win
CWS F5
2.0 runs
39.8% win
F5 Total
4.0
NRFI
58.8%
YRFI
41.2%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.81
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.0
Over 0.5 HR
88%
Over 1.5 HR
60%
No HR
12%
Ben Rice NYY30.0%
ISO: 0.342 | Barrel: 17.5% | vs Sean Burke | Park: 1.01x Platoon: 1.12x
Munetaka Murakami CWS30.0%
ISO: 0.195 | Barrel: 17.6% | vs Ryan Weathers | Park: 1.01x
Miguel Vargas CWS30.0%
ISO: 0.288 | Barrel: 13.7% | vs Ryan Weathers | Park: 1.01x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Ryan Weathers
0.0 K projected
NYY | K/9: 0.0
Sean Burke
0.0 K projected
CWS | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
NYY5 injured
Aaron Judge RF60-DAY-IL
Cody Bellinger LF10-DAY-IL
Clarke Schmidt SP60-DAY-IL
Carlos Rodon SP15-DAY-IL
Giancarlo Stanton DH10-DAY-IL
CWSHealthy
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -2
Game already completed (CWS 2, NYY 1, 11 innings). Peters walk-off walk in 11th. Model severely underestimated low-total, extra-inning risk.
Key Factors
- Game status: COMPLETED (as of ESPN 7/30 9:56p ET)
- Model total: 7.13, market 7.5, result 3 (under crushed, won by 4.5 runs)
- Under 7.5 edge: +6.6% (55.8% model prob) — correct direction but underestimated tightness
- Sean Burke (CWS SP) 3.45 ERA, 26.9% K-rate (quality arm, grade B)
- Ryan Weathers (NYY SP) 4.59 ERA but 26% K-rate — decent matchup for low total
Risk Factors
- Extra-inning games are high-variance and poorly modeled by pre-game simulations
- Model's 6.6% edge is within 5-10% range that has performed well (a supportive track record) but this game was an outlier low-scoring result
- NYY missing Judge, Stanton, Bellinger reduced offensive threat by 10-15%, partially offsetting tighter game
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
NYY 52.1%
-7.6 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-7.6 pts
Total
7.5
+6.6 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.