FINAL: STL 2 — CHC 4. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected STL 2.7 - CHC 3.6 (CHC at 55.3% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 6.3 total runs.
STL
2.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
CHC
3.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
STLCHC
+1.5
Run Line (STL)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
CHC L4STL
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.5% (3,107 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CHC
246
STL
135
Projected
STL 2.7 — CHC 3.6
Actual
STL 2 — CHC 4
Pick Results
CHC @ STL NRFInrfiWIN+0.90u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Javier Assad R
CHC
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI41%93 mph7% whiff
FF18%93 mph13% whiff
FC14%88 mph14% whiff
Andre Pallante R
STL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF31%95 mph12% whiff
SL30%88 mph30% whiff
SI18%95 mph10% whiff
Weather Impact
Busch Stadium
88°F3 mph wind
HR: 1.043 Total: 1.021
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
CHC
4.42ERA
4.75FIP
8.46K/9
3.68BB/9
1.38WHIP
STL
4.22ERA
4.22FIP
8.19K/9
4.10BB/9
1.35WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-35.9% EV
-102
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
+23.8% EV
-120
F5 UNDER 4.5
+21.6% EV
-110
F5_ML HOME
-16.4% EV
-128
ML HOME
-12.5% EV
-118
NRFI NRFI
+11.7% EV
-111
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CHC F5
1.8 runs
43.6% win
STL F5
1.4 runs
33.5% win
F5 Total
3.2
NRFI
62.7%
YRFI
37.3%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.69
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.9
Over 0.5 HR
84%
Over 1.5 HR
55%
No HR
16%
Jordan Walker STL27.9%
ISO: 0.215 | Barrel: 12.5% | vs Javier Assad | Park: 0.98x
Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC26.8%
ISO: 0.294 | Barrel: 14.6% | vs Andre Pallante | Park: 0.98x Platoon: 1.12x
Alec Burleson STL24.6%
ISO: 0.222 | Barrel: 8.8% | vs Javier Assad | Park: 0.98x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Javier Assad
0.0 K projected
CHC | K/9: 0.0
Andre Pallante
0.0 K projected
STL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
CHC8 injured
Hoby Milner RP15-DAY-IL
Edward Cabrera SP15-DAY-IL
Daniel Palencia RP15-DAY-IL
Phil Maton RP15-DAY-IL
Shelby Miller RP60-DAY-IL
Hunter Harvey RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
STL4 injured
Ramon Urias 3B60-DAY-IL
Riley O'Brien RPDAY-TO-DAY
Max Rajcic RP60-DAY-IL
JoJo Romero RP15-DAY-IL
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -2
Game already completed (CHC 4, STL 2, 10 innings). Bregman go-ahead double in 10th. Model's 23.8% edge on unders was correct but unactionable (game ended 6 total runs, well under 8.5).
Key Factors
- Game status: COMPLETED (as of ESPN 7/30 10:34p ET)
- Model total: 6.34, market 8.5, result 6 (under won by 2.5 runs)
- Under 8.5 edge: +23.8% (67.6% model prob) at historically weak threshold — extreme edge with mediocre historical WR
- Andre Pallante 4.07 ERA, poor K-rate (8% league-adjusted) vs Assad 4.17 ERA
- Bregman (CHC bat) provided walk-off power; Assad kept STL quiet through 9
Risk Factors
- EXTREME EDGE TRAP: 23.8% edge in >20% bucket shows 41.2% historical WR (historically weak). Model was overconfident.
- Extra-inning format added unpredictability; game went 10 innings on thin margins
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CHC 55.3%
-11.3 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-11.3 pts
Total
8.5
+23.8 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.