CHC vs STL prediction for July 30, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects STL 3.3 - CHC 4.0. CHC is favored with a 53.4% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 7.2 total runs.
STL
3.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
CHC
4.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
STLCHC
+1.5
Run Line (STL)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.1% (2,978 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CHC
246
STL
135
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Javier Assad R
CHC
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI41%93 mph7% whiff
FF18%93 mph13% whiff
FC14%88 mph14% whiff
Andre Pallante R
STL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF31%95 mph12% whiff
SL30%88 mph30% whiff
SI18%95 mph10% whiff
Weather Impact
Busch Stadium
90°F4 mph wind
HR: 1.024 Total: 1.011
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
CHC
4.42ERA
4.75FIP
8.46K/9
3.68BB/9
1.38WHIP
STL
4.22ERA
4.22FIP
8.19K/9
4.10BB/9
1.35WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CHC F5
2.0 runs
44.7% win
STL F5
1.7 runs
36.0% win
F5 Total
3.7
NRFI
63.3%
YRFI
36.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.72
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
CHC8 injured
Edward Cabrera SP15-DAY-IL
Daniel Palencia RP15-DAY-IL
Phil Maton RP15-DAY-IL
Shelby Miller RP60-DAY-IL
Hunter Harvey RP60-DAY-IL
Ben Brown RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
STL4 injured
Ramon Urias 3B60-DAY-IL
Riley O'Brien RPDAY-TO-DAY
Max Rajcic RP60-DAY-IL
JoJo Romero RP15-DAY-IL
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
More Projections Today
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →