FINAL: CIN 3 — PIT 2. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected CIN 3.9 - PIT 4.2 (PIT at 50.9% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 9.5. Model projects 8.1 total runs.
CIN
3.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.5
PIT
4.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
CINPIT
+1.5
Run Line (CIN)
9.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
PIT W4CIN W5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 51.4% (3,107 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
PIT
246
CIN
246
Projected
CIN 3.9 — PIT 4.2
Actual
CIN 3 — PIT 2
Pick Results
PIT @ CIN NRFInrfiWIN+0.51u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Yohan Ramírez R
PIT
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
ST34%84 mph35% whiff
SI24%96 mph12% whiff
FF24%97 mph23% whiff
Rhett Lowder R
CIN
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI30%93 mph6% whiff
SL27%85 mph34% whiff
FF22%93 mph12% whiff
Weather Impact
Great American Ball Park
86°F6 mph wind
HR: 1.050 Total: 1.026
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
PIT
4.43ERA
4.56FIP
9.09K/9
4.27BB/9
1.40WHIP
CIN
4.25ERA
5.05FIP
8.31K/9
4.96BB/9
1.39WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL OVER 9.5
-28.0% EV
-114
TOTAL UNDER 9.5
+19.7% EV
-106
NRFI NRFI
+13.9% EV
+110
F5 UNDER 5.5
+12.8% EV
-128
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-9.0% EV
+136
F5_ML HOME
-8.9% EV
-110
First 5 Innings & NRFI
PIT F5
2.2 runs
44.0% win
CIN F5
2.0 runs
38.6% win
F5 Total
4.2
NRFI
58.3%
YRFI
41.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.82
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.4
Over 0.5 HR
90%
Over 1.5 HR
67%
No HR
10%
Brandon Lowe PIT30.0%
ISO: 0.275 | Barrel: 12.9% | vs Rhett Lowder | Park: 1.08x Platoon: 1.12x
Elly De La Cruz CIN27.7%
ISO: 0.177 | Barrel: 10.2% | vs Yohan Ramírez | Park: 1.08x Platoon: 1.12x
Sal Stewart CIN27.0%
ISO: 0.213 | Barrel: 17.5% | vs Yohan Ramírez | Park: 1.08x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Yohan Ramírez
0.0 K projected
PIT | K/9: 0.0
Rhett Lowder
0.0 K projected
CIN | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
PIT6 injured
Evan Sisk RP15-DAY-IL
Oneil Cruz CF60-DAY-IL
Spencer Horwitz 1B10-DAY-IL
Rafael Flores Jr. C7-DAY IL
Chris Devenski RP60-DAY-IL
Konnor Griffin SS60-DAY-IL
CIN6 injured
Blake Dunn CF10-DAY-IL
Nick Lodolo SP15-DAY-IL
Tony Santillan RP15-DAY-IL
Brandon Williamson SP60-DAY-IL
Spencer Steer 1B10-DAY-IL
Graham Ashcraft RP60-DAY-IL
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1
Model projects 8.05 runs (under 9.5 at 61.7%, 19.7% edge), but edge is historically mixed with weak 50.1% historical WR. Pitcher quality favors PIT (Ramírez 3.47 ERA vs Lowder 6.06 ERA), but high-edge under traps are 0-for-4 today. Market 9.5 is approximately fair; recommend SKIP.
Key Factors
- Pitcher mismatch: Ramírez (3.47 ERA, 25.5% K) vs Lowder (6.06 ERA, 18.5% K) — 2.59 ERA gap (ace-level advantage)
- Park factor: Great American +1.08 = +0.26 runs (thin air inflates)
- Model spread: -0.0 run (50.9% PIT win prob suggests bullpen factor matters as much as SPs)
- Under edge: 19.7% (model 61.7% vs market ~40%) — at historically weak boundary (20%+ edges: a supportive track record)
- Weather: 86.4°F, 5.8 mph wind, 35% humidity (neutral-to-slight scoring boost)
Risk Factors
- HIGH EDGE TRAP: 19.7% edge in 20%+ bucket shows historically weak weakness (a supportive track record). Model likely overconfident on CIN run suppression.
- Bullpen gap is critical: PIT bullpen slightly worse (both teams mid-season fatigue), so advantage PIT SPs may not materialize in late innings
- Lowder's 6.06 ERA is concerning but CIN bats are weak, offsetting starter disadvantage
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
PIT 50.9%
-1.1 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-1.1 pts
Total
9.5
+19.7 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.