PHI vs MIA prediction for July 30, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects MIA 2.6 - PHI 2.9. PHI is favored with a 51.5% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 5.5 total runs.
MIA
2.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
PHI
2.9
Projected Score
Win Probability
MIAPHI
+1.5
Run Line (MIA)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.3% (2,978 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
PHI
135
MIA
135
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Jesús Luzardo L
PHI
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
ST38%86 mph46% whiff
FF25%97 mph13% whiff
CH19%86 mph37% whiff
Ryan Gusto R
MIA
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF27%94 mph22% whiff
CH18%87 mph24% whiff
SI14%93 mph18% whiff
Weather Impact
loanDepot park
88°F9 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.035 Total: 1.017
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
PHI
4.67ERA
3.92FIP
10.59K/9
3.64BB/9
1.41WHIP
MIA
4.15ERA
3.73FIP
9.49K/9
4.04BB/9
1.22WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
PHI F5
1.5 runs
42.2% win
MIA F5
1.3 runs
33.4% win
F5 Total
2.8
NRFI
67.7%
YRFI
32.3%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.56
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
PHI7 injured
Lou Trivino RP15-DAY-IL
Kyle Schwarber DHDAY-TO-DAY
Tanner Banks RP60-DAY-IL
Brad Keller RP60-DAY-IL
Rafael Marchan C10-DAY-IL
Johan Rojas CF60-DAY-IL
+1 more
MIA8 injured
Leo Jimenez 3BDAY-TO-DAY
Owen Caissie RF10-DAY-IL
Michael Petersen RPDAY-TO-DAY
Max Meyer SP15-DAY-IL
Josh Ekness RP60-DAY-IL
Ronny Henriquez RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
More Projections Today
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →