FINAL: STL 3 — CHC 2. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected STL 2.9 - CHC 3.9 (CHC at 56.0% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 6.8 total runs.
STL
2.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
CHC
3.9
Projected Score
Win Probability
STLCHC
+1.5
Run Line (STL)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
CHC L4STL
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.7% (3,082 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CHC
246
STL
135
Projected
STL 2.9 — CHC 3.9
Actual
STL 3 — CHC 2
Pick Results
STL F5 MLf5_mlPUSH+0.00u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Matthew Boyd L
CHC
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF46%93 mph16% whiff
CH28%79 mph26% whiff
SL15%83 mph47% whiff
Dustin May R
STL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF27%97 mph17% whiff
FC22%93 mph20% whiff
ST19%86 mph32% whiff
Weather Impact
Busch Stadium
88°F8 mph wind
HR: 1.007 Total: 1.001
thin air, 7mph in
Bullpen Comparison
CHC
4.40ERA
4.78FIP
8.38K/9
3.67BB/9
1.38WHIP
STL
4.26ERA
4.19FIP
8.18K/9
4.05BB/9
1.35WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-47.0% EV
-192
TOTAL OVER 8.0
-31.1% EV
-110
TOTAL UNDER 8.0
+22.1% EV
-110
F5_ML HOME
-16.1% EV
-120
ML HOME
-11.5% EV
-110
NRFI NRFI
+10.4% EV
-114
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CHC F5
2.0 runs
45.9% win
STL F5
1.6 runs
34.0% win
F5 Total
3.6
NRFI
62.3%
YRFI
37.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.71
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.0
Over 0.5 HR
86%
Over 1.5 HR
59%
No HR
14%
Jordan Walker STL30.0%
ISO: 0.235 | Barrel: 12.7% | vs Matthew Boyd | Park: 0.98x Platoon: 1.12x
Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC29.4%
ISO: 0.288 | Barrel: 14.4% | vs Dustin May | Park: 0.98x Platoon: 1.12x
Michael Conforto CHC27.0%
ISO: 0.208 | Barrel: 13.6% | vs Dustin May | Park: 0.98x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Matthew Boyd
0.0 K projected
CHC | K/9: 0.0
Dustin May
0.0 K projected
STL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
CHC8 injured
Edward Cabrera SP15-DAY-IL
Daniel Palencia RP15-DAY-IL
Phil Maton RP15-DAY-IL
Shelby Miller RP60-DAY-IL
Hunter Harvey RP60-DAY-IL
Ben Brown RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
STL4 injured
Ramon Urias 3B60-DAY-IL
Riley O'Brien RPDAY-TO-DAY
Max Rajcic RP60-DAY-IL
JoJo Romero RP15-DAY-IL
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1
Away CHC is 56.0% favorite despite slight pitcher advantage (Boyd 4.11 vs May 4.96 ERA). Model shows 4.1% edge on away ML. But stronger play is NRFI at 10.4% edge — early-inning pitching control is cleaner signal than full-game outcome with home team variability. Lean NRFI over ML.
Key Factors
- Pitcher advantage away: Boyd 4.11 ERA (B- grade, 22.1% K-rate) vs May 4.96 ERA (B- grade, 23.2% K-rate) = 0.85 ERA gap favors away
- Away ML edge 4.1%: model 53.7% vs market 51.5% — modest value
- NRFI edge 10.4%: model 58.7% prob for no run first inning vs market implied lower — strong independent signal
- NRFI is cleaner: early-inning control to away pitcher is more reliable than full-game outcome
- Weather neutral: 88.4°F, 7.9 mph wind (slight in) = minimal impact
Risk Factors
- Full-game away ML edge (4.1%) is modest — could be noise
- NRFI at 10.4% edge is moderate but reliable for pitcher quality matchup
- Home team (STL) could rally mid-game even if NRFI wins
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CHC 56.0%
-47.0 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-47.0 pts
Total
8.0
+22.1 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.