FINAL: KC 3 — CLE 2. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected KC 4.7 - CLE 4.4 (KC at 55.0% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 9.2 total runs.
KC
4.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
CLE
4.4
Projected Score
Win Probability
KCCLE
+1.5
Run Line (KC)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 56.1% (4,039 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CLE
246
KC
357
Projected
KC 4.7 — CLE 4.4
Actual
KC 3 — CLE 2
Pick Results
KC F5 MLf5_mlWIN+0.66u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Parker Messick L
CLE
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF41%94 mph22% whiff
CH24%86 mph34% whiff
SI15%93 mph8% whiff
Daniel Lynch IV L
KC
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI31%94 mph13% whiff
CH25%86 mph23% whiff
SL19%87 mph34% whiff
Weather Impact
Kauffman Stadium
74°F2 mph wind
HR: 1.035 Total: 1.017
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
CLE
3.37ERA
3.70FIP
10.03K/9
3.72BB/9
1.23WHIP
KC
5.05ERA
4.97FIP
8.04K/9
4.76BB/9
1.56WHIP
Betting Edges
F5 UNDER 4.5
-7.3% EV
-135
NRFI NRFI
-6.5% EV
-130
ML AWAY
-5.1% EV
-103
NRFI YRFI
-4.7% EV
+102
F5 OVER 4.5
-4.7% EV
+104
TOTAL OVER 8.0
-3.2% EV
-115
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CLE F5
2.2 runs
37.3% win
KC F5
2.6 runs
46.6% win
F5 Total
4.8
NRFI
52.3%
YRFI
47.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.03
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.4
Over 0.5 HR
90%
Over 1.5 HR
69%
No HR
10%
Jac Caglianone KC21.8%
ISO: 0.181 | Barrel: 10.2% | vs Parker Messick | Park: 0.96x
Jo Adell CLE19.5%
ISO: 0.266 | Barrel: 7.9% | vs Daniel Lynch IV | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
Bobby Witt Jr. KC18.3%
ISO: 0.165 | Barrel: 8.1% | vs Parker Messick | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Parker Messick
0.0 K projected
CLE | K/9: 0.0
Daniel Lynch IV
0.0 K projected
KC | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
CLE2 injured
Colin Holderman RP15-DAY-IL
Rhys Hoskins 1B10-DAY-IL
KC8 injured
Nick Loftin 3BPATERNITY
Steven Cruz RPPATERNITY
Craig Kimbrel RPBEREAVEMENT
Connor Seabold RP60-DAY-IL
James McArthur RP60-DAY-IL
Beck Way RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
KC 55.0%
+2.0 pts
Run Line
+1.5
+2.0 pts
Total
8.0
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.