HOU vs SD prediction for August 9, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects SD 3.4 - HOU 4.3. HOU is favored with a 55.7% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 7.7 total runs.
SD
3.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
HOU
4.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
SDHOU
-1.5
Run Line (SD)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.6% (3,215 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
HOU
246
SD
135
Projected
SD 3.4 — HOU 4.3
Actual
SD 7 — HOU 2
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Cristian Javier R
HOU
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF51%93 mph23% whiff
ST22%80 mph27% whiff
CH16%86 mph32% whiff
Randy Vásquez R
SD
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF32%95 mph17% whiff
FC24%91 mph19% whiff
SI14%95 mph9% whiff
Weather Impact
PETCO Park
79°F8 mph wind
HR: 1.047 Total: 1.025
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
HOU
3.39ERA
4.06FIP
9.26K/9
3.67BB/9
1.18WHIP
SD
3.24ERA
3.74FIP
9.54K/9
3.72BB/9
1.23WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
HOU F5
2.5 runs
47.8% win
SD F5
2.1 runs
36.0% win
F5 Total
4.6
NRFI
56.3%
YRFI
43.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.92
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
HOU4 injured
Mike Burrows SP15-DAY-IL
Brice Matthews CF10-DAY-IL
Carlos Correa SS60-DAY-IL
Brandon Walter SP60-DAY-IL
SD8 injured
Joe Musgrove SP60-DAY-IL
Miguel Andujar DH10-DAY-IL
Nick Pivetta SP60-DAY-IL
Samad Taylor LF10-DAY-IL
Jason Adam RP60-DAY-IL
David Morgan RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN
Petco's run-suppressive environment (0.9 park factor) plus two competent bullpens (HOU 1.327, SD 1.389 quality) make the UNDER and NRFI the cleanest angles, while the HOU ML lean fights Javier's poor 7.12 ERA and should be treated cautiously.
Key Factors
- Model favors HOU despite Javier's brutal 7.12 ERA vs Vasquez's 4.53 ERA — edge is driven by HOU's superior overall roster (Alvarez, contender-caliber lineup), not the starter matchup, and the ML edge is only a modest 2.4 points
- Petco Park suppresses runs at 0.9 park factor, supporting the model's low 7.73-run total projection vs market's 9.0 line (11.2% UNDER edge)
- NRFI edge of 9.5% is inside the GREEN NRFI historical support — a clean, low-variance angle
- 11.2% total edge exceeds typical safe thresholds but stays under the calibration engine's 12.0% total cap — still warrants caution given totals are currently disabled league-wide
Risk Factors
- Javier's 7.12 ERA is one of the worst starter marks on the slate — any HOU ML play is fighting the pitching matchup directly
- Total market is disabled in calibration; treat the UNDER signal as informational context rather than a standing recommendation
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.