LAA vs SEA prediction for September 28, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects SEA 4.4 - LAA 3.5. SEA is favored with a 63.8% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.0. Model projects 7.9 total runs.
SEA
4.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.0
LAA
3.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
SEALAA
-1.5
Run Line (SEA)
7.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 61.7% (4,016 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
LAA
245
SEA
246
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Yusei Kikuchi L
LAA
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF41%96 mph14% whiff
SL25%87 mph23% whiff
FS17%87 mph28% whiff
Logan Gilbert R
SEA
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF40%96 mph19% whiff
SL25%87 mph35% whiff
FS15%82 mph41% whiff
Weather Impact
T-Mobile Park
60°F6 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 0.977 Total: 0.986
5mph in
Bullpen Comparison
LAA
4.36ERA
4.14FIP
9.47K/9
3.86BB/9
1.38WHIP
SEA
4.10ERA
4.21FIP
8.78K/9
3.44BB/9
1.34WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
LAA F5
1.8 runs
30.4% win
SEA F5
2.7 runs
53.8% win
F5 Total
4.4
NRFI
55.2%
YRFI
44.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.97
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
LAA8 injured
Ben Joyce RP15-DAY-IL
George Klassen SP15-DAY-IL
Nolan Schanuel 1B10-DAY-IL
Kyren Paris 2B10-DAY-IL
Samy Natera Jr. RP15-DAY-IL
Yoan Moncada 3B60-DAY-IL
+2 more
SEA8 injured
Kade Anderson SPDAY-TO-DAY
Andres Munoz RP15-DAY-IL
Brock Rodden SS10-DAY-IL
Nick Davila RP60-DAY-IL
Matt Brash RP60-DAY-IL
Brendan Donovan 3B7-DAY IL
+2 more
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
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Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.