LAD vs COL prediction for August 19, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects COL 7.8 - LAD 8.1. LAD is favored with a 50.7% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 11.5. Model projects 15.9 total runs.
COL
7.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 11.5
LAD
8.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
COLLAD
+1.5
Run Line (COL)
11.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 50.8% (3,352 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
LAD
6810
COL
6810
Projected
COL 7.8 — LAD 8.1
Actual
COL 4 — LAD 6
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Roki Sasaki R
LAD
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF42%98 mph16% whiff
FS27%90 mph35% whiff
SL21%87 mph38% whiff
Kyle Freeland L
COL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF24%91 mph11% whiff
FC21%88 mph19% whiff
KC21%82 mph32% whiff
Weather Impact
Coors Field
90°F7 mph wind
HR: 1.124 Total: 1.061
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
LAD
4.04ERA
3.95FIP
10.02K/9
4.27BB/9
1.29WHIP
COL
4.91ERA
4.37FIP
7.47K/9
3.90BB/9
1.51WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
LAD F5
4.9 runs
46.0% win
COL F5
4.9 runs
44.6% win
F5 Total
9.8
NRFI
31.2%
YRFI
68.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.96
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
LAD8 injured
Hunter Feduccia CDAY-TO-DAY
Edwin Diaz RP15-DAY-IL
Bobby Miller SP60-DAY-IL
Tyler Glasnow SP60-DAY-IL
Blake Treinen RP60-DAY-IL
Will Smith C60-DAY-IL
+2 more
COL8 injured
Jose Quintana SP60-DAY-IL
Kyle Karros 3B7-DAY IL
Hunter Goodman C10-DAY-IL
Tyler Freeman RF10-DAY-IL
Chase Dollander SP60-DAY-IL
Welinton Herrera RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.