ARI vs BOS prediction for August 19, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects BOS 5.3 - ARI 6.0. ARI is favored with a 52.4% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 11.2 total runs.
BOS
5.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
ARI
6.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
BOSARI
-1.5
Run Line (BOS)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 52.4% (3,352 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
ARI
468
BOS
357
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Brandon Pfaadt R
ARI
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF25%93 mph11% whiff
SI18%93 mph8% whiff
CH16%87 mph24% whiff
Payton Tolle L
BOS
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF47%96 mph24% whiff
SI22%95 mph12% whiff
FC19%88 mph29% whiff
Weather Impact
Fenway Park
88°F11 mph wind
HR: 1.089 Total: 1.048
thin air, 10mph out
Bullpen Comparison
ARI
3.62ERA
3.75FIP
7.68K/9
3.09BB/9
1.20WHIP
BOS
3.28ERA
3.46FIP
9.53K/9
3.04BB/9
1.21WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
ARI F5
3.2 runs
44.9% win
BOS F5
3.0 runs
42.4% win
F5 Total
6.1
NRFI
48.4%
YRFI
51.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.19
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
ARI8 injured
Ketel Marte 2BOUT
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. LF10-DAY-IL
Blake Walston SP60-DAY-IL
Ryan Thompson RP15-DAY-IL
Zac Gallen SP60-DAY-IL
Corbin Burnes SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
BOS8 injured
Jahmai Jones DHDAY-TO-DAY
Roman Anthony LF60-DAY-IL
Masataka Yoshida DH10-DAY-IL
Tanner Houck SP60-DAY-IL
Trevor Story SS60-DAY-IL
Justin Slaten RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.