TOR vs TB prediction for August 19, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects TB 4.5 - TOR 2.9. TB is favored with a 61.8% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 7.4 total runs.
TB
4.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
TOR
2.9
Projected Score
Win Probability
TBTOR
-1.5
Run Line (TB)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 66.0% (3,352 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TOR
135
TB
346
Projected
TB 4.5 — TOR 2.9
Actual
TB 7 — TOR 6
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Max Scherzer R
TOR
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF47%93 mph12% whiff
SL23%86 mph20% whiff
CH16%84 mph19% whiff
Drew Rasmussen R
TB
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FC29%90 mph24% whiff
FF29%96 mph25% whiff
SI23%95 mph14% whiff
Weather Impact
Tropicana Field
90°F10 mph windRoof: closed
HR: 1.000 Total: 1.000
Indoor (neutral)
Bullpen Comparison
TOR
3.70ERA
4.19FIP
8.10K/9
3.85BB/9
1.30WHIP
TB
3.92ERA
4.13FIP
8.77K/9
2.80BB/9
1.20WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TOR F5
1.4 runs
25.4% win
TB F5
2.7 runs
57.8% win
F5 Total
4.1
NRFI
62.3%
YRFI
37.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.77
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
TOR8 injured
Trey Yesavage SP15-DAY-IL
Jameson Taillon SP15-DAY-IL
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 1B7-DAY IL
Spencer Arrighetti SP15-DAY-IL
Jake Bloss SP60-DAY-IL
Luis Urias 2B10-DAY-IL
+2 more
TB8 injured
Griffin Jax SP15-DAY-IL
Manuel Rodriguez RP60-DAY-IL
Cole Sulser RP15-DAY-IL
Edwin Uceta RP60-DAY-IL
Jake Fraley RF60-DAY-IL
Gavin Lux LF60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.