LAD vs MIL prediction for October 11, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects MIL 4.0 - LAD 3.7. MIL is favored with a 54.8% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 6.0. Model projects 7.7 total runs.
MIL
4.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 6.0
LAD
3.7
Projected Score
Win Probability
MILLAD
-1.5
Run Line (MIL)
6.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 56.4% (4,074 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
LAD
246
MIL
246
Projected
MIL 4.0 — LAD 3.7
Actual
MIL 2 — LAD 1
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Tarik Skubal L
LAD
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF38%97 mph22% whiff
CH26%88 mph45% whiff
SI18%97 mph15% whiff
Jacob Misiorowski R
MIL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF63%100 mph36% whiff
FC14%96 mph20% whiff
SL11%92 mph33% whiff
Weather Impact
American Family Field
67°F4 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.015 Total: 1.006
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
LAD
3.94ERA
3.76FIP
10.20K/9
3.99BB/9
1.26WHIP
MIL
2.96ERA
3.35FIP
9.49K/9
3.42BB/9
1.16WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
LAD F5
1.8 runs
37.2% win
MIL F5
2.1 runs
44.9% win
F5 Total
4.0
NRFI
58.4%
YRFI
41.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.83
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
LAD7 injured
Blake Treinen RP15-DAY-IL
Will Klein RP60-DAY-IL
Eric Lauer SP60-DAY-IL
Gavin Stone SP60-DAY-IL
Jake Cousins RP60-DAY-IL
Ben Casparius RP60-DAY-IL
+1 more
MIL5 injured
Brandon Woodruff SP60-DAY-IL
Grant Anderson RP15-DAY-IL
Brian Fitzpatrick RP60-DAY-IL
Quinn Priester SP60-DAY-IL
Angel Zerpa RP60-DAY-IL
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.