FINAL: MIL 2 — MIA 1. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected MIL 5.3 - MIA 6.0 (MIA at 50.5% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 11.3 total runs.
MIL
5.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
MIA
6.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
MILMIA
-1.5
Run Line (MIL)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
MIA L5MIL W5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 50.4% (2,907 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
MIA
468
MIL
357
Projected
MIL 5.3 — MIA 6.0
Actual
MIL 2 — MIA 1
Pick Results
MIA F5 MLf5_mlPUSH+0.00u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Sandy Alcantara R
MIA
SI25%97 mph8% whiff
CH21%91 mph28% whiff
FF19%97 mph17% whiff
Logan Henderson R
MIL
FF42%93 mph24% whiff
CH32%83 mph31% whiff
FC21%87 mph12% whiff
Weather Impact
American Family Field
94°F13 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 0.986 Total: 0.988
thin air, 13mph in
Bullpen Comparison
MIA
3.85ERA
3.56FIP
9.97K/9
4.48BB/9
1.21WHIP
MIL
3.66ERA
3.52FIP
9.38K/9
3.94BB/9
1.32WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL UNDER 8.0
-33.8% EV
-108
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-26.4% EV
-172
TOTAL OVER 8.0
+24.2% EV
-112
F5 OVER 4.5
+20.7% EV
-102
F5_ML HOME
-20.5% EV
-149
F5_ML AWAY
+15.2% EV
+120
First 5 Innings & NRFI
MIA F5
3.4 runs
49.2% win
MIL F5
2.9 runs
39.3% win
F5 Total
6.3
NRFI
48.6%
YRFI
51.4%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.26
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.4
Over 0.5 HR
91%
Over 1.5 HR
69%
No HR
9%
Jake Bauers MIL30.0%
ISO: 0.268 | Barrel: 13.6% | vs Sandy Alcantara | Platoon: 1.12x
Jackson Chourio MIL30.0%
ISO: 0.241 | Barrel: 9.7% | vs Sandy Alcantara
Griffin Conine MIA29.1%
ISO: 0.148 | Barrel: 14.8% | vs Logan Henderson | Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Sandy Alcantara
0.0 K projected
MIA | K/9: 0.0
Logan Henderson
0.0 K projected
MIL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
MIA8 injured
Michael Petersen RPDAY-TO-DAY
William Kempner RP15-DAY-IL
Owen Caissie RF10-DAY-IL
John King RP15-DAY-IL
Anthony Bender RP15-DAY-IL
Josh Ekness RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
MIL8 injured
DL Hall RP15-DAY-IL
Kyle Harrison SP15-DAY-IL
Jacob Misiorowski SPDAY-TO-DAY
Rob Zastryzny RP60-DAY-IL
David Hamilton 3B10-DAY-IL
Brandon Woodruff SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
STRONG BET +1
Model projects 11.27 total runs with 24.2% edge vs market 8.0 on STRONG pitching matchup (Logan Henderson B+ 0.709 vs Sandy Alcantara B- 0.48). Henderson's 0.709 grade + 3.43 ERA is elite home pitcher performance. Hot weather 94.4°F + MIL bullpen strength pushes run environment higher. Yet 24.2% edge falls in HIGH-EDGE ZONE (historically 49.3% WR). BET at 0.75 units with caution — edge is real but recalibrated for historical underperformance.
Key Factors
- DOMINANT HOME PITCHER: Logan Henderson (B+ 0.709, 31.1% K rate(!), 3.43 ERA, elite command 0.873). This is MIL's ace-level performance. Sandy Alcantara (B- 0.48, 18.5% K%, 4.31 ERA, weak stuff 0.254) is significantly weaker.
- Pitcher Grade Gap: 0.709 vs 0.48 = 0.229 gap (huge). Henderson dominates stuff, command, ERA. This is 15-20% win prob swing to MIL.
- Yet Model Favors MIA ML Slightly: Model gives MIA 47% ML prob vs market 43.5%. This contradicts pitcher dominance. MIA ML edge = underdog value, not pitcher advantage. Internally consistent.
- Hot Weather: 94.4°F + thin air (2,572 ft density alt) = significant run boost. MIL ballpark American Family is neutral (1.0 PF), but heat adds 0.5-1.0 runs.
- Wind CRITICAL: 13 mph blowing IN (wind dir 251) = -13 mph tail. This KILLS fly balls and suppressess scoring significantly. Weather multiplier 0.988 (down from baseline). Heat is offset by infield wind.
Risk Factors
- HIGH EDGE = OVERCONFIDENCE ZONE: 24.2% edge historically = 49.3% WR. Model is likely overestimating run environment impact.
- WIND KILL: 13 mph infield wind is MASSIVE suppression factor. Weather multiplier 0.988 means runs are actually BELOW neutral for 94°F day. Model may be weighting heat > wind effect.
- Henderson Recent Form Unknown: If Henderson is regressing from 3.43 ERA, edge disappears. Alcantara could be overvalued.
HIGH EDGE WARNINGPITCHER MISMATCHWEATHER IMPACT
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
MIA 50.5%
-11.5 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-11.5 pts
Total
8.0
+24.2 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.