TB vs BOS prediction for July 17, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects BOS 5.3 - TB 5.3. BOS is favored with a 50.6% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 10.6 total runs.
BOS
5.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
TB
5.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
BOSTB
+1.5
Run Line (BOS)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 50.4% (2,790 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TB
357
BOS
357
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Griffin Jax R
TB
ST26%88 mph36% whiff
CH22%91 mph37% whiff
SI20%96 mph11% whiff
Jake Bennett L
BOS
FF33%93 mph28% whiff
SI28%93 mph6% whiff
CH26%84 mph32% whiff
Weather Impact
Fenway Park
84°F8 mph wind
HR: 0.999 Total: 0.997
6mph in
Bullpen Comparison
TB
4.35ERA
4.16FIP
8.55K/9
3.50BB/9
1.33WHIP
BOS
3.90ERA
4.18FIP
9.00K/9
3.45BB/9
1.30WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-32.9% EV
-196
TOTAL UNDER 9.0
-14.9% EV
-110
F5_ML AWAY
-11.5% EV
-116
TOTAL OVER 9.0
+5.9% EV
-110
ML HOME
-5.1% EV
-116
ML AWAY
-3.0% EV
-102
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TB F5
2.8 runs
40.7% win
BOS F5
3.0 runs
46.8% win
F5 Total
5.8
NRFI
50.0%
YRFI
50.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.15
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.4
Over 0.5 HR
90%
Over 1.5 HR
68%
No HR
10%
Junior Caminero TB30.0%
ISO: 0.191 | Barrel: 14.0% | vs Jake Bennett | Park: 1.08x Platoon: 1.12x
Ryan Vilade TB30.0%
ISO: 0.088 | Barrel: 8.8% | vs Jake Bennett | Park: 1.08x Platoon: 1.12x
Wilyer Abreu BOS25.9%
ISO: 0.172 | Barrel: 12.3% | vs Griffin Jax | Park: 1.08x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Griffin Jax
0.0 K projected
TB | K/9: 0.0
Jake Bennett
0.0 K projected
BOS | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
TB8 injured
Gavin Lux LF60-DAY-IL
Jake Fraley RF10-DAY-IL
Steven Wilson RP60-DAY-IL
Jesse Scholtens RP15-DAY-IL
Steven Matz SP15-DAY-IL
Edwin Uceta RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
BOS8 injured
Garrett Crochet SP60-DAY-IL
Roman Anthony LF60-DAY-IL
Connelly Early SP15-DAY-IL
Willson Contreras 1BSUSPENSION
Ranger Suarez SP15-DAY-IL
Johan Oviedo SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
BOS 50.6%
-32.9 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-32.9 pts
Total
9.0
+5.9 pts
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →