PIT vs CLE prediction for July 17, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects CLE 4.5 - PIT 6.5. PIT is favored with a 58.1% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 11.1 total runs.
CLE
4.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
PIT
6.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
CLEPIT
+1.5
Run Line (CLE)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 56.9% (2,790 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
PIT
568
CLE
346
SOLID
0.5u
PIT F5 ML
Edge: 13.1% | Odds: -104
Pittsburgh's Jared Jones (0.975 pitcher quality) matches Cleveland's Gavin Williams (1.004) almost exactly, but the first-5 moneyline market is pricing this as a home-team advantage when the simulation gives PIT 58.15% win probability in the full game and 61% in the model. The key: Jones' slider whiff rate (0.340) and changeup whiff rate (0.357) both exceed Williams' fastball whiff rate (0.255), giving Pittsburgh's starter a cleaner arsenal for early-inning strikes. Progressive Field's 85.7-degree temperature and 1.044 HR multiplier favor fly-ball contact, but the first five innings neutralize full-game fatigue penalties. The sim projects 6.54 away runs and 4.51 home runs; early-inning run distribution favors the visitor. At -104 odds with 13.1% edge and 19.5% EV, this is a 0.5-unit lean on the away F5 ML as a cleaner market than the full-game moneyline (which league data flags as a 46% historical win-rate zone).
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Jared Jones R
PIT
FF42%99 mph22% whiff
SL32%90 mph34% whiff
CH16%93 mph36% whiff
Gavin Williams R
CLE
ST26%87 mph42% whiff
FF23%97 mph26% whiff
CU22%83 mph26% whiff
Weather Impact
Progressive Field
86°F5 mph wind
HR: 1.044 Total: 1.022
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
PIT
4.50ERA
4.23FIP
9.39K/9
4.70BB/9
1.41WHIP
CLE
3.52ERA
3.55FIP
10.51K/9
3.50BB/9
1.23WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-49.7% EV
-213
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
-40.7% EV
-106
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
+37.3% EV
+176
TOTAL OVER 7.5
+30.5% EV
-114
F5_ML HOME
-28.6% EV
-120
F5_ML AWAY
+19.5% EV
-104
First 5 Innings & NRFI
PIT F5
3.7 runs
57.6% win
CLE F5
2.4 runs
30.7% win
F5 Total
6.1
NRFI
49.4%
YRFI
50.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.16
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.7
Over 0.5 HR
92%
Over 1.5 HR
74%
No HR
8%
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Jared Jones
0.0 K projected
PIT | K/9: 0.0
Gavin Williams
0.0 K projected
CLE | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
PIT7 injured
Konnor Griffin SS60-DAY-IL
Endy Rodriguez C10-DAY-IL
Spencer Horwitz 1B10-DAY-IL
Oneil Cruz CF10-DAY-IL
Wilber Dotel RP15-DAY-IL
Evan Sisk RP15-DAY-IL
+1 more
CLE3 injured
Tim Herrin RP15-DAY-IL
Jose Ramirez 3B10-DAY-IL
Angel Martinez LF10-DAY-IL
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
PIT 58.1%
-49.7 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-49.7 pts
Total
7.5
+30.5 pts
More Projections Today
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →