PIT vs CLE prediction for July 17, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects CLE 4.7 - PIT 6.4. PIT is favored with a 57.2% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 11.1 total runs.
CLE
4.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
PIT
6.4
Projected Score
Win Probability
CLEPIT
+1.5
Run Line (CLE)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.8% (2,907 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
PIT
468
CLE
357
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Jared Jones R
PIT
FF42%99 mph22% whiff
SL32%90 mph34% whiff
CH16%93 mph36% whiff
Gavin Williams R
CLE
ST26%87 mph42% whiff
FF23%97 mph26% whiff
CU22%83 mph26% whiff
Weather Impact
Progressive Field
86°F5 mph wind
HR: 1.044 Total: 1.022
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
PIT
4.50ERA
4.23FIP
9.39K/9
4.70BB/9
1.41WHIP
CLE
3.52ERA
3.55FIP
10.51K/9
3.50BB/9
1.23WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-48.1% EV
-208
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
-41.7% EV
-110
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
+33.0% EV
+172
TOTAL OVER 7.5
+32.7% EV
-110
F5_ML HOME
-27.9% EV
-135
F5_ML AWAY
+21.8% EV
+108
First 5 Innings & NRFI
PIT F5
3.7 runs
55.8% win
CLE F5
2.6 runs
32.8% win
F5 Total
6.3
NRFI
48.1%
YRFI
51.9%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.24
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.8
Over 0.5 HR
94%
Over 1.5 HR
76%
No HR
6%
Brandon Lowe PIT30.0%
ISO: 0.312 | Barrel: 12.9% | vs Gavin Williams | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Chase DeLauter CLE30.0%
ISO: 0.079 | Barrel: 7.9% | vs Jared Jones | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Bryan Reynolds PIT25.5%
ISO: 0.140 | Barrel: 10.1% | vs Gavin Williams | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Jared Jones
0.0 K projected
PIT | K/9: 0.0
Gavin Williams
0.0 K projected
CLE | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
PIT7 injured
Konnor Griffin SS60-DAY-IL
Endy Rodriguez C10-DAY-IL
Spencer Horwitz 1B10-DAY-IL
Oneil Cruz CF10-DAY-IL
Wilber Dotel RP15-DAY-IL
Evan Sisk RP15-DAY-IL
+1 more
CLE3 injured
Tim Herrin RP15-DAY-IL
Jose Ramirez 3B10-DAY-IL
Angel Martinez LF10-DAY-IL
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
PIT 57.2%
-48.1 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-48.1 pts
Total
7.5
+32.7 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.