MIL vs LAD prediction for October 16, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects LAD 4.3 - MIL 3.8. LAD is favored with a 59.3% win probability. the total is 6.0. Model projects 8.1 total runs.
LAD
4.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 6.0
MIL
3.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
LADMIL
N/A
Run Line
6.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 59.4% (4,074 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
MIL
246
LAD
246
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Robert Gasser L
MIL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
ST25%80 mph26% whiff
SI24%93 mph10% whiff
FF22%93 mph25% whiff
Blake Snell L
LAD
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF49%96 mph20% whiff
CU23%80 mph42% whiff
CH17%85 mph42% whiff
Weather Impact
Dodger Stadium
86°F6 mph wind
HR: 1.072 Total: 1.038
thin air, 6mph out
Bullpen Comparison
MIL
2.96ERA
3.35FIP
9.49K/9
3.42BB/9
1.16WHIP
LAD
3.94ERA
3.76FIP
10.20K/9
3.99BB/9
1.26WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
MIL F5
2.0 runs
34.8% win
LAD F5
2.5 runs
48.9% win
F5 Total
4.5
NRFI
55.0%
YRFI
45.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.95
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
MIL5 injured
Brandon Woodruff SP60-DAY-IL
Grant Anderson RP15-DAY-IL
Brian Fitzpatrick RP60-DAY-IL
Quinn Priester SP60-DAY-IL
Angel Zerpa RP60-DAY-IL
LAD7 injured
Blake Treinen RP15-DAY-IL
Will Klein RP60-DAY-IL
Eric Lauer SP60-DAY-IL
Gavin Stone SP60-DAY-IL
Jake Cousins RP60-DAY-IL
Ben Casparius RP60-DAY-IL
+1 more
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.