MIN vs NYY prediction for July 5, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects NYY 4.2 - MIN 4.4. NYY is favored with a 50.2% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 8.6 total runs.
NYY
4.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
MIN
4.4
Projected Score
Win Probability
NYYMIN
-1.5
Run Line (NYY)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 47.4% (2,777 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
MIN
246
NYY
246
Projected
NYY 4.2 — MIN 4.4
Actual
NYY 1 — MIN 6
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Joe Ryan R
MIN
FF44%93 mph22% whiff
ST14%80 mph34% whiff
SI12%93 mph7% whiff
Ryan Weathers L
NYY
FF29%96 mph16% whiff
CH23%86 mph34% whiff
ST20%81 mph44% whiff
Weather Impact
Yankee Stadium
82°F7 mph wind
HR: 1.031 Total: 1.015
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
MIN
4.99ERA
4.47FIP
8.81K/9
4.51BB/9
1.47WHIP
NYY
3.36ERA
3.71FIP
8.80K/9
3.56BB/9
1.27WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-31.8% EV
-189
F5_ML HOME
-13.8% EV
-115
TOTAL OVER 8.0
-9.8% EV
-111
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-9.8% EV
+154
ML HOME
-9.1% EV
-135
ML AWAY
+1.8% EV
+113
First 5 Innings & NRFI
MIN F5
2.6 runs
47.5% win
NYY F5
2.2 runs
38.5% win
F5 Total
4.8
NRFI
52.0%
YRFI
48.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.01
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.0
Over 0.5 HR
95%
Over 1.5 HR
80%
No HR
5%
Byron Buxton MIN30.0%
ISO: 0.208 | Barrel: 17.6% | vs Ryan Weathers | Park: 1.10x Platoon: 1.12x
Kody Clemens MIN30.0%
ISO: 0.163 | Barrel: 12.0% | vs Ryan Weathers | Park: 1.10x
Ben Rice NYY30.0%
ISO: 0.347 | Barrel: 15.4% | vs Joe Ryan | Park: 1.10x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Joe Ryan
0.0 K projected
MIN | K/9: 0.0
Ryan Weathers
0.0 K projected
NYY | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
MIN8 injured
Zebby Matthews SPDAY-TO-DAY
Ryan Jeffers C10-DAY-IL
Anthony Banda RP15-DAY-IL
Bailey Ober SP15-DAY-IL
Mick Abel SP15-DAY-IL
Garrett Acton RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
NYY5 injured
Max Fried SP15-DAY-IL
Carlos Rodon SP15-DAY-IL
Giancarlo Stanton DH10-DAY-IL
Aaron Judge RF10-DAY-IL
Clarke Schmidt SP60-DAY-IL
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRALYELLOW ZONE52.0% WR (n=140)
Ryan Weathers (B-grade, 4.41 ERA, 26.1% K-rate, balanced arsenal) vs Joe Ryan (B-grade, 3.9 ERA, 27.4% K-rate, elite command 75.6% score). Both starters are B-tier; Joe Ryan is slightly better on ERA and command. However, NYY home field (Yankee Stadium +8-10% HR factor) and 82.5F temperature (neutral) favor home runs. Model shows MIN away ML at only 1.8% edge (47.8% prob, market 46.9% implied). This is a coin flip with minimal edge. NYY injuries (Judge 10-DAY-IL ribs, Stanton 10-DAY-IL calf) slightly lower their offensive power but not enough to flip the game. Better to skip and wait for sharper spots; both UNDER (0.9% edge) and ML edges are too small to justify unit allocation.
Key Factors
- Pitcher comparison: Joe Ryan 3.9 ERA, 75.6% command score vs Weathers 4.41 ERA, 61.2% command score — Joe Ryan slight edge but both solid
- NYY home field advantage (+8-10% HR factor) worth ~0.5-1pt
- NYY injuries: Judge (10d IL, ribs) and Stanton (10d IL, calf) reduce offensive ceiling by ~0.5-1pt each, totaling ~1pt swing to MIN
- Market-model gap on away ML (1.8% edge) is minimal and within closing line value drift range
Risk Factors
- Both teams evenly matched; minimal structural edge
- Micro-edges (<5%) historically underperform due to sharp money correction
BALANCED MATCHUPINJURIES OFFSETMICRO EDGES
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
NYY 50.2%
-9.8 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-9.8 pts
Total
8.0
+0.9 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →