FINAL: ATL 9 — NYM 10. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected ATL 3.4 - NYM 3.6 (ATL at 51.0% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 7.0 total runs.
ATL
3.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
NYM
3.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
ATLNYM
+1.5
Run Line (ATL)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
NYMATL L5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 50.7% (2,777 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
NYM
246
ATL
135
Projected
ATL 3.4 — NYM 3.6
Actual
ATL 9 — NYM 10
Pick Results
NYM @ ATL F5 UNDER 4.5f5LOSS-0.50u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Nolan McLean R
NYM
SI35%95 mph14% whiff
FF19%96 mph24% whiff
ST17%85 mph22% whiff
Martín Pérez L
ATL
SI32%89 mph9% whiff
CH31%82 mph30% whiff
FC23%85 mph18% whiff
Weather Impact
Truist Park
92°F2 mph wind
HR: 1.055 Total: 1.027
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
NYM
3.44ERA
3.69FIP
9.32K/9
3.58BB/9
1.21WHIP
ATL
2.18ERA
2.83FIP
9.74K/9
2.51BB/9
1.00WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL OVER 9.0
-37.4% EV
-102
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-34.2% EV
-175
TOTAL UNDER 9.0
+25.8% EV
-119
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-10.1% EV
+144
F5_ML HOME
-9.0% EV
-105
ML AWAY
-6.4% EV
-114
First 5 Innings & NRFI
NYM F5
2.0 runs
44.5% win
ATL F5
1.8 runs
38.3% win
F5 Total
3.8
NRFI
58.1%
YRFI
41.9%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.86
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.2
Over 0.5 HR
88%
Over 1.5 HR
63%
No HR
12%
Juan Soto NYM28.6%
ISO: 0.225 | Barrel: 18.1% | vs Martín Pérez
Mark Vientos NYM24.2%
ISO: 0.151 | Barrel: 11.5% | vs Martín Pérez | Platoon: 1.12x
Matt Olson ATL23.7%
ISO: 0.283 | Barrel: 14.3% | vs Nolan McLean | Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Nolan McLean
0.0 K projected
NYM | K/9: 0.0
Martín Pérez
0.0 K projected
ATL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
NYM8 injured
Luis Robert Jr. CF60-DAY-IL
Marcus Semien 2B10-DAY-IL
Clay Holmes SP60-DAY-IL
Jorge Polanco 1B60-DAY-IL
Dedniel Nunez RP60-DAY-IL
Reed Garrett RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
ATL8 injured
Ha-Seong Kim SS10-DAY-IL
AJ Smith-Shawver SP60-DAY-IL
Ronald Acuna Jr. RF10-DAY-IL
Spencer Schwellenbach SP60-DAY-IL
Robert Suarez RP15-DAY-IL
Spencer Strider SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1YELLOW ZONE50.1% WR (n=302)
Model shows edge on ATL UNDER 9.0 (25.8%), but this is in YELLOW zone with historical 50.1% WR on high-edge totals — overconfidence risk. Game is essentially a coin flip on side (HOME -2.1% edge, -113 odds show market near fair). Nolan McLean (10.4 K/9, B-grade stuff) vs Martín Pérez (7.4 K/9, C-grade stuff) suggests slight pitcher edge to NYM, but ATL home field (warm 92F) and park factor 1.027 suggest runs will score. Market pricing of 9.0 is fair given lineup quality and weather. Skip until secondary confirmation (sharp money, bullpen fatigue data).
Key Factors
- High edge (25.8%) on generic totals market with only 50.1% historical WR — model overconfident
- Pitcher mismatch absent: Pérez 7.4 K/9 vs McLean 10.4 K/9 suggests modest edge to NYM, not ATL
- Temperature 92.3F with 43% humidity, tail wind minimal (-0.7 mph) — neutral to slight under bias but not dramatic
- Recent 14d performance shows generic totals performing only mediocrely
Risk Factors
- High-edge totals (>20%) flagged in historical data as model overconfidence trap
- Market already prices 9.0 total fairly given roster quality and venue
- No bullpen fatigue data suggests both pens are at baseline strength
HIGH EDGE WARNINGYELLOW ZONEMODERATE WEATHER IMPACT
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
ATL 51.0%
-34.2 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-34.2 pts
Total
9.0
+25.8 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →