STL vs CHC Prediction

CHC home with strong pitcher quality: Javier Assad (C+ grade, 5.7 K-rate — EXTREMELY low, D stuff score 0.08, but elite command 73.4% score 0.734) vs Matthew Liberatore (B- grade, 8.3 K-rate, 35.9% stuff score). Assad is a contact pitcher with incredible command; Liberatore is a strikeout-prone left-hander. Model shows CHC ML edge of 2.3% (61.2% win prob), which is light, but the RUN LINE at HOME -1.5 shows 10.3% edge (45.8% cover rate). This suggests the model sees a 2-3 run gap favoring CHC, not just a directional flip. Given Assad's elite command (73.4% score is elite), Liberatore's elevated BB rate (8.8% when he's not a top command guy), and CHC home field advantage (+3% park factor at Wrigley), I lean CHC. The UNDER 8.0 at 15.4% edge is also compelling: Assad's low K-rate (5.7) combined with Liberatore's 8.3 K-rate suggests fewer strikeouts but doesn't necessarily mean more runs scored — contact pitchers can suppress runs via weak contact. Weather: 70.6F, windy (11.1 mph, tail wind 1.9 mph away from hitters) — slight under bias. LEAN CHC ML or RUN LINE -1.5, but the -149 odds are fair for a 61% team, so prefer the run line at +103% implied (roughly -110 equivalent).