NYM vs TEX prediction for September 25, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects TEX 4.1 - NYM 4.0. TEX is favored with a 53.7% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 8.1 total runs.
TEX
4.1
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
NYM
4.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
TEXNYM
-1.5
Run Line (TEX)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 56.5% (3,969 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
NYM
246
TEX
246
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Zac Thornton L
NYM
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FC31%88 mph15% whiff
FF26%92 mph17% whiff
ST16%80 mph25% whiff
Kumar Rocker R
TEX
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SL37%83 mph41% whiff
SI30%94 mph8% whiff
FC14%90 mph19% whiff
Weather Impact
Globe Life Field
91°F5 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.031 Total: 1.014
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
NYM
4.47ERA
4.45FIP
9.27K/9
3.78BB/9
1.34WHIP
TEX
4.31ERA
4.48FIP
8.46K/9
3.79BB/9
1.33WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
NYM F5
2.2 runs
40.0% win
TEX F5
2.4 runs
44.2% win
F5 Total
4.6
NRFI
54.6%
YRFI
45.4%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.96
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
NYM7 injured
Christian Scott SP15-DAY-IL
Jared Young 1B7-DAY IL
Daniel Duarte RP15-DAY-IL
Robert Stock RP15-DAY-IL
Jorge Polanco DH60-DAY-IL
Reed Garrett RP60-DAY-IL
+1 more
TEX8 injured
Cal Quantrill RP60-DAY-IL
Joc Pederson DH10-DAY-IL
Jack Leiter SP60-DAY-IL
Michel Otanez RP15-DAY-IL
Cole Winn RP60-DAY-IL
Kyle Higashioka C10-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
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Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.