MIA vs CHC prediction for September 25, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects CHC 5.2 - MIA 4.6. CHC is favored with a 58.6% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.0. Model projects 9.7 total runs.
CHC
5.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.0
MIA
4.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
CHCMIA
-1.5
Run Line (CHC)
7.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 59.3% (3,969 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
MIA
357
CHC
357
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Tyler Phillips R
MIA
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI26%96 mph4% whiff
ST24%84 mph31% whiff
FS23%87 mph34% whiff
Matthew Boyd L
CHC
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF44%93 mph14% whiff
CH28%79 mph26% whiff
SL14%83 mph35% whiff
Weather Impact
Wrigley Field
64°F8 mph wind
HR: 0.987 Total: 0.991
6mph in
Bullpen Comparison
MIA
4.30ERA
4.00FIP
9.88K/9
4.30BB/9
1.31WHIP
CHC
4.26ERA
4.66FIP
9.26K/9
4.07BB/9
1.33WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
MIA F5
2.5 runs
37.7% win
CHC F5
3.0 runs
47.6% win
F5 Total
5.4
NRFI
49.4%
YRFI
50.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.13
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
MIA8 injured
Xavier Edwards 2BDAY-TO-DAY
Anthony Bender RP15-DAY-IL
Pete Fairbanks RP15-DAY-IL
Max Meyer SP15-DAY-IL
Owen Caissie RF10-DAY-IL
Andrew Nardi RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
CHC8 injured
Kevin Gausman SPDAY-TO-DAY
Alex Bregman 3BDAY-TO-DAY
Shelby Miller RP60-DAY-IL
Trent Thornton RP15-DAY-IL
Gavin Hollowell RP15-DAY-IL
Ben Brown RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
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Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.