HOU vs OAK prediction for September 25, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects OAK 5.4 - HOU 6.7. HOU is favored with a 63.9% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 12.1 total runs.
OAK
5.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
HOU
6.7
Projected Score
Win Probability
OAKHOU
+1.5
Run Line (OAK)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 63.4% (4,034 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
HOU
579
OAK
357
Projected
OAK 5.4 — HOU 6.7
Actual
OAK 6 — HOU 5
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Hunter Brown R
HOU
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF31%96 mph22% whiff
SI30%96 mph19% whiff
KC19%83 mph37% whiff
Jacob Lopez L
OAK
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF34%90 mph18% whiff
SL34%76 mph27% whiff
FC20%86 mph23% whiff
Weather Impact
Sutter Health Park
78°F10 mph wind
HR: 1.034 Total: 1.018
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
HOU
3.67ERA
4.13FIP
9.13K/9
3.67BB/9
1.23WHIP
OAK
4.88ERA
4.40FIP
9.46K/9
4.57BB/9
1.52WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
HOU F5
4.0 runs
54.0% win
OAK F5
3.1 runs
34.8% win
F5 Total
7.0
NRFI
39.7%
YRFI
60.3%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.53
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
HOU8 injured
Daulton Varsho CF10-DAY-IL
Jake Meyers CF60-DAY-IL
Brice Matthews CF10-DAY-IL
Cristian Javier SP15-DAY-IL
Mike Burrows SP60-DAY-IL
Enyel De Los Santos RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
OAK8 injured
Alika Williams SSDAY-TO-DAY
J.T. Ginn SP60-DAY-IL
Max Muncy 3B10-DAY-IL
Brooks Kriske RP60-DAY-IL
Brent Rooker DH60-DAY-IL
Nick Kurtz 1B60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.