BAL vs NYY prediction for September 25, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects NYY 4.3 - BAL 3.8. NYY is favored with a 57.7% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 6.0. Model projects 8.1 total runs.
NYY
4.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 6.0
BAL
3.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
NYYBAL
-1.5
Run Line (NYY)
6.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 59.5% (4,034 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
BAL
246
NYY
246
Projected
NYY 4.3 — BAL 3.8
Actual
NYY 6 — BAL 3
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Trevor Rogers L
BAL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF47%94 mph21% whiff
CH20%87 mph22% whiff
ST14%78 mph31% whiff
Brendan Beck R
NYY
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF48%92 mph18% whiff
SL34%84 mph48% whiff
FS7%83 mph25% whiff
Weather Impact
Yankee Stadium
67°F15 mph wind
HR: 0.977 Total: 0.986
7mph in
Bullpen Comparison
BAL
3.94ERA
3.70FIP
8.83K/9
3.62BB/9
1.30WHIP
NYY
3.27ERA
4.10FIP
8.24K/9
3.57BB/9
1.25WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
BAL F5
2.1 runs
37.8% win
NYY F5
2.4 runs
45.4% win
F5 Total
4.5
NRFI
52.6%
YRFI
47.4%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.99
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
BAL8 injured
Blaze Alexander 3B10-DAY-IL
Kyle Bradish SP60-DAY-IL
Tyler O'Neill RF60-DAY-IL
Samuel Basallo C7-DAY IL
Jackson Holliday 2B10-DAY-IL
Ryan Helsley RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
NYY7 injured
Ryan Weathers SP15-DAY-IL
Clarke Schmidt SP15-DAY-IL
Trent Grisham CF10-DAY-IL
Aaron Judge RF10-DAY-IL
Giancarlo Stanton DH60-DAY-IL
Fernando Cruz RP15-DAY-IL
+1 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.