CIN vs TOR prediction for September 25, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects TOR 4.5 - CIN 3.8. TOR is favored with a 60.9% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 8.3 total runs.
TOR
4.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
CIN
3.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
TORCIN
-1.5
Run Line (TOR)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 60.0% (4,034 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CIN
246
TOR
346
Projected
TOR 4.5 — CIN 3.8
Actual
TOR 6 — CIN 5
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Nick Lodolo L
CIN
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF26%94 mph15% whiff
SI26%94 mph7% whiff
CU25%82 mph41% whiff
José Soriano R
TOR
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI30%96 mph16% whiff
KC25%85 mph40% whiff
FF21%97 mph20% whiff
Weather Impact
Rogers Centre
65°F3 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 0.995 Total: 0.996
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
CIN
4.27ERA
4.72FIP
9.00K/9
4.79BB/9
1.40WHIP
TOR
3.23ERA
3.94FIP
8.69K/9
3.79BB/9
1.23WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CIN F5
2.0 runs
32.5% win
TOR F5
2.8 runs
51.6% win
F5 Total
4.7
NRFI
53.4%
YRFI
46.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.03
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
CIN7 injured
Tony Santillan RP15-DAY-IL
Spencer Steer 1B60-DAY-IL
Chase Burns SP15-DAY-IL
Julian Garcia RP15-DAY-IL
Blake Dunn CF60-DAY-IL
Michael Toglia 1B60-DAY-IL
+1 more
TOR8 injured
Brett Bateman CFDAY-TO-DAY
Dylan Cease SP15-DAY-IL
Anthony Santander RF60-DAY-IL
Shane Bieber SP15-DAY-IL
Jameson Taillon SP15-DAY-IL
Rudy Martin Jr. RF10-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.