COL vs CWS prediction for September 25, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects CWS 4.0 - COL 3.6. CWS is favored with a 57.9% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 7.6 total runs.
CWS
4.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
COL
3.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
CWSCOL
-1.5
Run Line (CWS)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 59.5% (4,034 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
COL
246
CWS
246
Projected
CWS 4.0 — COL 3.6
Actual
CWS 6 — COL 1
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Tomoyuki Sugano R
COL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FS21%87 mph30% whiff
FF21%93 mph14% whiff
SI19%92 mph4% whiff
Sean Burke R
CWS
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF37%95 mph21% whiff
KC20%79 mph26% whiff
SL17%86 mph31% whiff
Weather Impact
Rate Field
59°F7 mph wind
HR: 1.004 Total: 1.002
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
COL
4.70ERA
4.26FIP
7.77K/9
4.11BB/9
1.48WHIP
CWS
3.78ERA
4.24FIP
9.16K/9
4.49BB/9
1.31WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
COL F5
2.0 runs
36.3% win
CWS F5
2.4 runs
47.0% win
F5 Total
4.3
NRFI
55.3%
YRFI
44.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.92
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
COL7 injured
Willi Castro 2B10-DAY-IL
Chase Dollander SP60-DAY-IL
Welinton Herrera RP60-DAY-IL
McCade Brown SP60-DAY-IL
RJ Petit RP60-DAY-IL
Pierson Ohl RP60-DAY-IL
+1 more
CWSHealthy
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.