CHC vs BOS prediction for September 25, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects BOS 3.3 - CHC 4.3. CHC is favored with a 63.2% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 6.5. Model projects 7.7 total runs.
BOS
3.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 6.5
CHC
4.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
BOSCHC
+1.5
Run Line (BOS)
6.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 62.2% (4,034 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CHC
246
BOS
135
Projected
BOS 3.3 — CHC 4.3
Actual
BOS 2 — CHC 0
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Clay Holmes R
CHC
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI49%93 mph10% whiff
ST18%81 mph24% whiff
CH15%88 mph32% whiff
Alec Gamboa L
BOS
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF42%96 mph12% whiff
SL35%88 mph20% whiff
SI21%94 mph8% whiff
Weather Impact
Fenway Park
63°F13 mph wind
HR: 0.940 Total: 0.964
13mph in
Bullpen Comparison
CHC
4.24ERA
4.66FIP
9.22K/9
4.08BB/9
1.33WHIP
BOS
3.00ERA
3.28FIP
9.82K/9
3.12BB/9
1.21WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CHC F5
2.4 runs
50.8% win
BOS F5
1.7 runs
31.3% win
F5 Total
4.1
NRFI
58.0%
YRFI
42.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.87
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
CHC8 injured
Edward Cabrera SPBEREAVEMENT
Justin Steele SP60-DAY-IL
Kevin Gausman SPDAY-TO-DAY
Shelby Miller RP60-DAY-IL
Trent Thornton RP15-DAY-IL
Ben Brown RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
BOS8 injured
Mickey Gasper DHDAY-TO-DAY
Willson Contreras 1BDAY-TO-DAY
Garrett Crochet SP60-DAY-IL
Curtis Mead 3B10-DAY-IL
Eli White CF10-DAY-IL
Tanner Houck SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.