FINAL: WSH 7 — NYM 6. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected WSH 4.5 - NYM 4.1 (WSH at 56.6% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 8.7 total runs.
WSH
4.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
NYM
4.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
WSHNYM
+1.5
Run Line (WSH)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
NYM L5WSH W4
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 59.0% (4,034 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
NYM
246
WSH
346
Projected
WSH 4.5 — NYM 4.1
Actual
WSH 7 — NYM 6
Pick Results
WSH MLmlWIN+0.57u
WSH MLmlWIN+0.57u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
R TBD
NYM
Andrew Alvarez L
WSH
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
CU32%83 mph33% whiff
FF28%92 mph9% whiff
SL20%84 mph34% whiff
Weather Impact
Nationals Park
69°F10 mph wind
HR: 0.968 Total: 0.980
9mph in
Bullpen Comparison
NYM
4.46ERA
4.47FIP
9.32K/9
3.81BB/9
1.34WHIP
WSH
5.71ERA
5.33FIP
8.77K/9
4.75BB/9
1.56WHIP
Betting Edges
NRFI YRFI
-7.8% EV
+100
F5 OVER 4.5
-7.6% EV
-110
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-7.4% EV
+155
ML AWAY
-6.6% EV
-104
F5 UNDER 4.5
-4.5% EV
-118
NRFI NRFI
-4.0% EV
-128
First 5 Innings & NRFI
NYM F5
2.2 runs
37.3% win
WSH F5
2.6 runs
47.3% win
F5 Total
4.8
NRFI
54.4%
YRFI
45.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.99
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.5
Over 0.5 HR
92%
Over 1.5 HR
70%
No HR
8%
James Wood WSH30.0%
ISO: 0.261 | Barrel: 16.3% | Platoon: 1.12x
Juan Soto NYM25.1%
ISO: 0.171 | Barrel: 18.1% | vs Andrew Alvarez
Andrés Chaparro WSH22.6%
ISO: 0.111 | Barrel: 11.1%
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
0.0 K projected
NYM | K/9: 0.0
Andrew Alvarez
0.0 K projected
WSH | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
NYM7 injured
Christian Scott SP15-DAY-IL
Jared Young 1B7-DAY IL
Daniel Duarte RP15-DAY-IL
Robert Stock RP15-DAY-IL
Jorge Polanco DH60-DAY-IL
Reed Garrett RP60-DAY-IL
+1 more
WSH7 injured
Connelly Early SP60-DAY-IL
Matt Waldron RP60-DAY-IL
Drew Millas C60-DAY-IL
Orlando Ribalta RP15-DAY-IL
PJ Poulin RP60-DAY-IL
Mitchell Parker RP60-DAY-IL
+1 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -2
CRITICAL DATA INTEGRITY FAILURE: NYM away pitcher is TBD (missing from all profiles). Cannot assess starting pitcher quality, which is 40-50% of outcome predictability. Avoid until confirmed starter announced.
Key Factors
- HOME pitcher Alvarez (3.42 ERA, B- grade) = solid mid-tier arm
- AWAY pitcher: TBD — no profile, no ERA, no grade. Model likely using placeholder assumption
- Home ML edge +2.6% suggests model sees home advantage, but without confirmed away SP this is unreliable
Risk Factors
- TBD away pitcher invalidates model predictions; if confirmed starter is elite or back-end, model edge flips substantially
- Totals disabled: cannot recommend despite +2.7% over edge
- Home ML edge lands historically mixed a supportive track record — historically weakest niche
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
WSH 56.6%
+0.6 pts
Run Line
+1.5
+0.6 pts
Total
8.0
+2.7 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.