ATL vs MIA prediction for September 25, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects MIA 4.3 - ATL 4.5. ATL is favored with a 50.5% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 8.8 total runs.
MIA
4.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
ATL
4.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
MIAATL
+1.5
Run Line (MIA)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 52.1% (4,034 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
ATL
346
MIA
246
Projected
MIA 4.3 — ATL 4.5
Actual
MIA 3 — ATL 0
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Ray Kerr L
ATL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF36%95 mph25% whiff
CU33%81 mph33% whiff
SI21%95 mph0% whiff
Eury Pérez R
MIA
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF38%98 mph20% whiff
SI17%98 mph13% whiff
SL17%88 mph42% whiff
Weather Impact
loanDepot park
77°F4 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.039 Total: 1.021
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
ATL
3.11ERA
3.40FIP
9.68K/9
3.00BB/9
1.11WHIP
MIA
4.31ERA
4.02FIP
9.86K/9
4.29BB/9
1.31WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
ATL F5
2.5 runs
44.3% win
MIA F5
2.3 runs
39.8% win
F5 Total
4.8
NRFI
53.2%
YRFI
46.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.03
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
ATL8 injured
Hurston Waldrep SP60-DAY-IL
Martin Perez SP15-DAY-IL
Lane Thomas LF10-DAY-IL
Reynaldo Lopez RP15-DAY-IL
Joe Jimenez RP60-DAY-IL
Bryce Elder SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
MIA8 injured
Xavier Edwards 2BDAY-TO-DAY
Anthony Bender RP15-DAY-IL
Pete Fairbanks RP15-DAY-IL
Max Meyer SP15-DAY-IL
Owen Caissie RF10-DAY-IL
Andrew Nardi RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.