FINAL: KC 9 — CLE 12. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected KC 4.9 - CLE 4.1 (KC at 62.8% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.0. Model projects 9.0 total runs.
KC
4.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.0
CLE
4.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
KCCLE
+1.5
Run Line (KC)
7.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 62.2% (4,034 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CLE
246
KC
357
Projected
KC 4.9 — CLE 4.1
Actual
KC 9 — CLE 12
Pick Results
KC MLmlLOSS-1.00u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Gavin Williams R
CLE
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
ST28%88 mph44% whiff
FF27%98 mph28% whiff
CU22%83 mph30% whiff
Noah Cameron L
KC
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF24%92 mph13% whiff
FC21%90 mph19% whiff
CH20%81 mph35% whiff
Weather Impact
Kauffman Stadium
66°F5 mph wind
HR: 1.009 Total: 1.003
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
CLE
3.28ERA
3.66FIP
10.12K/9
3.75BB/9
1.22WHIP
KC
4.93ERA
4.83FIP
8.15K/9
4.59BB/9
1.54WHIP
Betting Edges
F5 UNDER 3.5
-18.2% EV
-108
TOTAL OVER 7.0
+17.1% EV
-116
ML AWAY
-13.5% EV
-135
ML HOME
+13.1% EV
+125
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-13.0% EV
+129
F5_ML HOME
+10.5% EV
+102
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CLE F5
2.2 runs
35.0% win
KC F5
2.8 runs
50.4% win
F5 Total
5.0
NRFI
52.0%
YRFI
48.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.05
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.4
Over 0.5 HR
90%
Over 1.5 HR
69%
No HR
10%
Carter Jensen KC29.1%
ISO: 0.251 | Barrel: 20.8% | vs Gavin Williams | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
Jac Caglianone KC28.7%
ISO: 0.212 | Barrel: 12.0% | vs Gavin Williams | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
Bobby Witt Jr. KC26.3%
ISO: 0.159 | Barrel: 12.5% | vs Gavin Williams | Park: 0.96x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Gavin Williams
0.0 K projected
CLE | K/9: 0.0
Noah Cameron
0.0 K projected
KC | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
CLE2 injured
Colin Holderman RP15-DAY-IL
Rhys Hoskins 1B10-DAY-IL
KC8 injured
Steven Cruz RPPATERNITY
Craig Kimbrel RPBEREAVEMENT
Connor Seabold RP60-DAY-IL
James McArthur RP60-DAY-IL
Beck Way RP15-DAY-IL
Carlos Estevez RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1
KC home dog with +13.1% ML edge (model 50.3% vs market 44.4%) falls into a positive historical support for this profile (10-15% home edge = a supportive track record). Market overvalues CLE road favorite, missing KC value despite weak overall bullpen; small sample but positive directional signal.
Key Factors
- Home dog ML edge +13.1%: market 44.4% vs model 50.3% = 5.9pp gap — significant, favors KC
- Zone profile for home 10-15% edge: a supportive track record — positive signal above breakeven
- Gavin Williams (away, B+, 3.92 ERA) slightly edges Noah Cameron (home, B-, 4.23 ERA), but SP gap only +0.31 ERA
- KC bullpen weak overall (4.93 ERA, worst on slate) but closer decent (3.04 ERA)
Risk Factors
- Totals disabled: +17.1% over edge cannot be recommended (historical support WR breakeven)
- Small historical support sample — not statistically robust though direction is positive
- KC is structurally weak team overall (worst bullpen ERA on slate)
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
KC 62.8%
+5.4 pts
Run Line
+1.5
+5.4 pts
Total
7.0
+17.1 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.