FINAL: BAL 1 — NYY 6. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected BAL 3.5 - NYY 4.6 (NYY at 56.4% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 8.1 total runs.
BAL
3.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
NYY
4.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
BALNYY
+1.5
Run Line (BAL)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
NYYBAL W4
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 60.2% (3,465 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
NYY
357
BAL
245
Projected
BAL 3.5 — NYY 4.6
Actual
BAL 1 — NYY 6
Pick Results
NYY @ BAL NRFInrfiWIN+0.42u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Gerrit Cole R
NYY
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF48%97 mph21% whiff
SL19%90 mph25% whiff
CH14%86 mph19% whiff
Kyle Bradish R
BAL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI35%95 mph9% whiff
SL26%87 mph34% whiff
CU22%85 mph39% whiff
Weather Impact
Oriole Park at Camden Yards
77°F6 mph wind
HR: 1.018 Total: 1.008
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
NYY
3.01ERA
3.94FIP
8.49K/9
3.61BB/9
1.21WHIP
BAL
4.38ERA
3.92FIP
8.70K/9
3.74BB/9
1.33WHIP
Betting Edges
F5_ML HOME
-11.6% EV
-102
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-8.2% EV
-179
ML HOME
-6.7% EV
-102
TOTAL OVER 7.5
-5.1% EV
-112
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
-3.9% EV
-108
ML AWAY
+2.5% EV
-106
First 5 Innings & NRFI
NYY F5
2.5 runs
47.6% win
BAL F5
2.0 runs
35.8% win
F5 Total
4.5
NRFI
56.0%
YRFI
44.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.90
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.1
Over 0.5 HR
88%
Over 1.5 HR
62%
No HR
12%
Ben Rice NYY30.0%
ISO: 0.314 | Barrel: 16.3% | vs Kyle Bradish | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x
Pete Alonso BAL30.0%
ISO: 0.249 | Barrel: 13.3% | vs Gerrit Cole | Park: 1.03x
Christian Encarnacion-Strand BAL29.8%
ISO: 0.167 | Barrel: 14.9% | vs Gerrit Cole | Park: 1.03x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Gerrit Cole
0.0 K projected
NYY | K/9: 0.0
Kyle Bradish
0.0 K projected
BAL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
NYY7 injured
Ryan McMahon 3BDAY-TO-DAY
Cody Bellinger LF10-DAY-IL
Max Fried SP15-DAY-IL
Aaron Judge RF60-DAY-IL
Clarke Schmidt SP60-DAY-IL
Giancarlo Stanton DH10-DAY-IL
+1 more
BAL8 injured
Blaze Alexander 3B10-DAY-IL
Felix Bautista RP60-DAY-IL
Ryan Helsley RP60-DAY-IL
Colin Selby RP60-DAY-IL
Ryan Mountcastle 1B60-DAY-IL
Keegan Akin RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1
Gerrit Cole (3.48 ERA, B grade, 26.5% K, 5.3% BB) is clearly superior to Kyle Bradish (3.94 ERA, C+ grade), but the model shows only a 2.5% edge for NYY away — too small to overcome historically weak away-underdog structural disadvantage (a supportive track record in this edge bucket).
Key Factors
- Pitcher advantage clear: Cole 3.48 ERA (B, 26.5% K, 5.3% BB) vs Bradish 3.94 ERA (C+, 21.7% K, 10.3% BB)
- Away underdog historically weak: a supportive track record on away ML with 0-5% edge, -4.26 units historically
- Edge insufficient: 2.5% edge for an away underdog doesn't clear the bar needed to overcome historical support drag
- NYY lineup weakened: Aaron Judge (60-day IL) and Giancarlo Stanton (10-day IL) removed from the lineup
Risk Factors
- Away underdog structural trap: 45.2% overall WR, -14.34 units on 177 tracked bets
- Cole regression risk: even elite arms have bad nights; 3.48 ERA doesn't guarantee outcome
- BAL bullpen depleted (Helsley, Bautista, Akin, Eflin all on IL) but this affects late innings, not the core thesis
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
NYY 56.4%
-8.2 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-8.2 pts
Total
7.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.