FINAL: MIL 7 — SEA 4. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected MIL 5.6 - SEA 4.2 (MIL at 60.6% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 9.8 total runs.
MIL
5.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
SEA
4.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
MILSEA
-1.5
Run Line (MIL)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 65.8% (3,465 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SEA
246
MIL
468
Projected
MIL 5.6 — SEA 4.2
Actual
MIL 7 — SEA 4
Pick Results
MIL MLmlWIN+0.40u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
George Kirby R
SEA
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
ST29%87 mph26% whiff
FF29%97 mph20% whiff
SI21%97 mph11% whiff
Robert Gasser L
MIL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
ST26%80 mph28% whiff
SI24%92 mph11% whiff
FF22%93 mph20% whiff
Weather Impact
American Family Field
78°F3 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.021 Total: 1.009
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
SEA
3.70ERA
3.95FIP
8.99K/9
3.38BB/9
1.30WHIP
MIL
3.32ERA
3.56FIP
9.18K/9
3.66BB/9
1.24WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
-15.0% EV
-104
F5_ML AWAY
-14.1% EV
+106
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-11.5% EV
-179
F5 OVER 4.5
+6.7% EV
-102
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
+6.5% EV
+146
ML AWAY
-6.0% EV
+126
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SEA F5
2.4 runs
34.4% win
MIL F5
3.3 runs
52.8% win
F5 Total
5.7
NRFI
49.2%
YRFI
50.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.13
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.2
Over 0.5 HR
88%
Over 1.5 HR
63%
No HR
12%
Dominic Canzone SEA30.0%
ISO: 0.233 | Barrel: 13.6% | vs Robert Gasser
Jake Bauers MIL29.9%
ISO: 0.224 | Barrel: 13.2% | vs George Kirby | Platoon: 1.12x
Jackson Chourio MIL27.2%
ISO: 0.186 | Barrel: 9.6% | vs George Kirby
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
George Kirby
0.0 K projected
SEA | K/9: 0.0
Robert Gasser
0.0 K projected
MIL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
SEA8 injured
Luke Raley RF60-DAY-IL
J.P. Crawford SS10-DAY-IL
Bryan Woo SPDAY-TO-DAY
Matt Brash RP15-DAY-IL
Colt Emerson SS10-DAY-IL
Cooper Criswell RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
MIL8 injured
Sal Frelick RF10-DAY-IL
JoJo Romero RP15-DAY-IL
Abner Uribe RP15-DAY-IL
Joel Kuhnel RP15-DAY-IL
Brandon Woodruff SP60-DAY-IL
Rob Zastryzny RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL
Kirby (4.20 ERA) holds a modest edge over Gasser (4.90 ERA), but ESPN scoreboard data indicates this game may have already been completed today (MIL winning 7-4); combined with a minimal 0.5% ML edge, there's insufficient reason to bet.
Key Factors
- Pitcher edge modest: Kirby 4.20 ERA vs Gasser 4.90 ERA — 0.7-point gap, both graded B-
- Game status uncertain: ESPN reports a completed 7-4 MIL win today, conflicting with simulation's future-game framing
- ML edge minimal: 0.5% (60.6% model vs 58.1% market) — sits historically mixed
- Run line shows better edge (6.5% on MIL -1.5) but carries added spread variance not worth chasing given status uncertainty
Risk Factors
- If the game has already been played, any position taken is moot or erroneous
- Run line edge doesn't compensate for the additional variance versus a straight ML play
- SEA calling up prospect Kade Anderson signals roster churn that could affect near-term lineup construction
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
MIL 60.6%
+6.5 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+6.5 pts
Total
7.5
+4.7 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.