SF vs CLE prediction for August 19, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects CLE 4.4 - SF 3.5. CLE is favored with a 57.3% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 7.9 total runs.
CLE
4.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
SF
3.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
CLESF
-1.5
Run Line (CLE)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 60.5% (3,352 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SF
245
CLE
246
Projected
CLE 4.4 — SF 3.5
Actual
CLE 0 — SF 1
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Matt Wilkinson L
SF
Parker Messick L
CLE
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF38%94 mph24% whiff
CH24%86 mph34% whiff
SI16%93 mph8% whiff
Weather Impact
Progressive Field
79°F4 mph wind
HR: 1.030 Total: 1.014
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
SF
4.76ERA
4.63FIP
7.41K/9
4.66BB/9
1.49WHIP
CLE
3.62ERA
3.90FIP
9.93K/9
3.92BB/9
1.27WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SF F5
1.6 runs
30.6% win
CLE F5
2.4 runs
50.4% win
F5 Total
3.9
NRFI
60.1%
YRFI
39.9%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.80
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
SF8 injured
Daniel Susac C60-DAY-IL
Harrison Bader CF60-DAY-IL
Jesus Rodriguez C10-DAY-IL
Marcelo Mayer 2B10-DAY-IL
Logan Webb SPDAY-TO-DAY
Matt Chapman 3B60-DAY-IL
+2 more
CLE6 injured
Rhys Hoskins 1B10-DAY-IL
Chase DeLauter RFDAY-TO-DAY
Jo Adell RFDAY-TO-DAY
Colin Holderman RPDAY-TO-DAY
Slade Cecconi SP15-DAY-IL
Shawn Armstrong RP60-DAY-IL
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.