STL vs MIL prediction for September 28, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects MIL 4.5 - STL 3.2. MIL is favored with a 69.8% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.0. Model projects 7.8 total runs.
MIL
4.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.0
STL
3.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
MILSTL
-1.5
Run Line (MIL)
7.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 75.4% (4,016 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
STL
135
MIL
346
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Andre Pallante R
STL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF34%95 mph12% whiff
SL29%88 mph30% whiff
KC17%79 mph28% whiff
Jacob Misiorowski R
MIL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF63%100 mph36% whiff
FC14%96 mph20% whiff
SL12%92 mph33% whiff
Weather Impact
American Family Field
69°F7 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.015 Total: 1.006
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
STL
4.39ERA
4.22FIP
8.56K/9
4.33BB/9
1.37WHIP
MIL
2.97ERA
3.35FIP
9.51K/9
3.42BB/9
1.17WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
STL F5
1.5 runs
27.7% win
MIL F5
2.5 runs
54.1% win
F5 Total
4.0
NRFI
60.0%
YRFI
40.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.81
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
STL6 injured
Masyn Winn SSOUT
Blaze Jordan 3B10-DAY-IL
Joshua Baez LF10-DAY-IL
Everson Pereira RF10-DAY-IL
Hunter Dobbins SP15-DAY-IL
Max Rajcic RP60-DAY-IL
MIL7 injured
Joey Ortiz SSDAY-TO-DAY
Andrew Vaughn 1B10-DAY-IL
Grant Anderson RP15-DAY-IL
Brandon Woodruff SP60-DAY-IL
Brian Fitzpatrick RP60-DAY-IL
Quinn Priester SP60-DAY-IL
+1 more
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
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Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.