TB vs MIL prediction for October 23, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects MIL 3.4 - TB 3.0. MIL is favored with a 56.8% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 6.5. Model projects 6.4 total runs.
MIL
3.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 6.5
TB
3.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
MILTB
-1.5
Run Line (MIL)
6.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.8% (4,089 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TB
135
MIL
135
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Nick Martinez R
TB
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI31%92 mph8% whiff
CH26%78 mph29% whiff
FC22%89 mph12% whiff
Jacob Misiorowski R
MIL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF63%100 mph35% whiff
FC13%96 mph20% whiff
SL11%92 mph32% whiff
Weather Impact
American Family Field
54°F4 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 0.985 Total: 0.991
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
TB
3.10ERA
3.78FIP
9.10K/9
2.81BB/9
1.08WHIP
MIL
2.96ERA
3.35FIP
9.49K/9
3.42BB/9
1.16WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TB F5
1.5 runs
33.6% win
MIL F5
1.9 runs
46.3% win
F5 Total
3.4
NRFI
60.7%
YRFI
39.3%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.78
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
TB6 injured
Shane McClanahan SPOUT
Jacob Melton LF60-DAY-IL
Gavin Lux LF60-DAY-IL
Edwin Uceta RP60-DAY-IL
Jonathan Heasley RP60-DAY-IL
Ryan Pepiot SP60-DAY-IL
MIL3 injured
Brian Fitzpatrick RP60-DAY-IL
Quinn Priester SP60-DAY-IL
Angel Zerpa RP60-DAY-IL
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
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Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.