TB vs MIL prediction for October 24, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects MIL 2.9 - TB 3.0. MIL is favored with a 50.9% win probability. MIL wins more simulations despite the lower average score. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 6.5. Model projects 5.9 total runs.
MIL
2.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 6.5
TB
3.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
MILTB
-1.5
Run Line (MIL)
6.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.2% (4,090 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TB
135
MIL
135
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Drew Rasmussen R
TB
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FC29%90 mph23% whiff
FF28%96 mph24% whiff
SI23%95 mph14% whiff
Logan Henderson R
MIL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF47%93 mph18% whiff
CH35%83 mph35% whiff
FC15%88 mph16% whiff
Weather Impact
American Family Field
58°F4 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 0.991 Total: 0.994
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
TB
3.10ERA
3.78FIP
9.10K/9
2.81BB/9
1.08WHIP
MIL
2.96ERA
3.35FIP
9.49K/9
3.42BB/9
1.16WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TB F5
1.5 runs
39.0% win
MIL F5
1.5 runs
39.0% win
F5 Total
3.1
NRFI
64.0%
YRFI
36.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.68
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
TB6 injured
Shane McClanahan SPOUT
Jacob Melton LF60-DAY-IL
Gavin Lux LF60-DAY-IL
Edwin Uceta RP60-DAY-IL
Jonathan Heasley RP60-DAY-IL
Ryan Pepiot SP60-DAY-IL
MIL3 injured
Brian Fitzpatrick RP60-DAY-IL
Quinn Priester SP60-DAY-IL
Angel Zerpa RP60-DAY-IL
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
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Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.