TB vs NYY prediction for October 7, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects NYY 3.6 - TB 3.7. NYY is favored with a 51.5% win probability. NYY wins more simulations despite the lower average score. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.0. Model projects 7.3 total runs.
NYY
3.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.0
TB
3.7
Projected Score
Win Probability
NYYTB
-1.5
Run Line (NYY)
7.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 54.4% (4,074 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TB
246
NYY
246
Projected
NYY 3.6 — TB 3.7
Actual
NYY 3 — TB 4
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Nick Martinez R
TB
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI32%92 mph9% whiff
CH26%78 mph29% whiff
FC22%89 mph12% whiff
Max Fried L
NYY
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FC23%92 mph24% whiff
SI20%93 mph16% whiff
FF18%95 mph16% whiff
Weather Impact
Yankee Stadium
56°F6 mph wind
HR: 1.014 Total: 1.008
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
TB
3.10ERA
3.78FIP
9.10K/9
2.81BB/9
1.08WHIP
NYY
3.28ERA
4.13FIP
8.35K/9
3.61BB/9
1.26WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TB F5
1.8 runs
36.3% win
NYY F5
2.1 runs
45.3% win
F5 Total
3.9
NRFI
57.8%
YRFI
42.2%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.83
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
TB7 injured
Shane McClanahan SPOUT
Griffin Jax SPDAY-TO-DAY
Jacob Melton LF60-DAY-IL
Gavin Lux LF60-DAY-IL
Edwin Uceta RP60-DAY-IL
Jonathan Heasley RP60-DAY-IL
+1 more
NYY4 injured
Aaron Judge RF10-DAY-IL
Clarke Schmidt SP15-DAY-IL
Fernando Cruz RP60-DAY-IL
Kervin Castro RP60-DAY-IL
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.