MIL vs SD prediction for October 7, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects SD 4.4 - MIL 4.5. SD is favored with a 51.1% win probability. SD wins more simulations despite the lower average score. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 8.8 total runs.
SD
4.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
MIL
4.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
SDMIL
-1.5
Run Line (SD)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 52.8% (4,074 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
MIL
346
SD
246
Projected
SD 4.4 — MIL 4.5
Actual
SD 1 — MIL 3
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Robert Gasser L
MIL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
ST25%80 mph26% whiff
SI23%93 mph10% whiff
FF22%93 mph24% whiff
Walker Buehler R
SD
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FC24%90 mph15% whiff
FF20%94 mph14% whiff
SI19%94 mph10% whiff
Weather Impact
PETCO Park
77°F3 mph wind
HR: 1.020 Total: 1.009
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
MIL
2.96ERA
3.35FIP
9.49K/9
3.42BB/9
1.16WHIP
SD
2.84ERA
3.52FIP
9.80K/9
3.90BB/9
1.21WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
MIL F5
2.6 runs
42.0% win
SD F5
2.6 runs
42.8% win
F5 Total
5.2
NRFI
51.4%
YRFI
48.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.12
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
MIL5 injured
Brandon Woodruff SP60-DAY-IL
Grant Anderson RP15-DAY-IL
Brian Fitzpatrick RP60-DAY-IL
Quinn Priester SP60-DAY-IL
Angel Zerpa RP60-DAY-IL
SD8 injured
Adrian Morejon RPDAY-TO-DAY
Gavin Sheets 1BDAY-TO-DAY
Rodolfo Duran C60-DAY-IL
Casey Mize SP15-DAY-IL
Miguel Andujar DH10-DAY-IL
Jeremiah Estrada RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.