TB vs TEX prediction for September 5, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects TEX 3.4 - TB 3.9. TB is favored with a 54.9% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 6.5. Model projects 7.2 total runs.
TEX
3.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 6.5
TB
3.9
Projected Score
Win Probability
TEXTB
-1.5
Run Line (TEX)
6.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 59.5% (3,747 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TB
246
TEX
135
Projected
TEX 3.4 — TB 3.9
Actual
TEX 3 — TB 6
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Drew Rasmussen R
TB
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF29%96 mph23% whiff
FC29%90 mph23% whiff
SI23%95 mph14% whiff
Jacob deGrom R
TEX
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF42%97 mph23% whiff
SL36%91 mph38% whiff
CH13%90 mph45% whiff
Weather Impact
Globe Life Field
96°F11 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.016 Total: 1.005
thin air, 8mph in
Bullpen Comparison
TB
3.61ERA
3.93FIP
8.80K/9
2.83BB/9
1.15WHIP
TEX
4.28ERA
4.45FIP
8.50K/9
3.77BB/9
1.33WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TB F5
2.0 runs
42.8% win
TEX F5
1.8 runs
38.1% win
F5 Total
3.8
NRFI
59.1%
YRFI
40.9%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.78
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
TB8 injured
Garrett Cleavinger RP15-DAY-IL
Bryan Baker RPDAY-TO-DAY
Shane McClanahan SP15-DAY-IL
Jake Fraley RF60-DAY-IL
Cole Sulser RP15-DAY-IL
Edwin Uceta RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
TEX8 injured
Kyle Higashioka C10-DAY-IL
Josh Jung 3B10-DAY-IL
Nathan Eovaldi SP15-DAY-IL
Robert Garcia RP60-DAY-IL
Cole Winn RP15-DAY-IL
Peyton Gray RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.