BOS vs BAL prediction for September 5, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects BAL 4.0 - BOS 4.5. BOS is favored with a 55.0% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 8.5 total runs.
BAL
4.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
BOS
4.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
BALBOS
+1.5
Run Line (BAL)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 59.5% (3,747 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
BOS
346
BAL
246
Projected
BAL 4.0 — BOS 4.5
Actual
BAL 0 — BOS 5
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Sonny Gray R
BOS
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI21%92 mph13% whiff
ST20%85 mph38% whiff
FC19%88 mph14% whiff
Chris Bassitt R
BAL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI37%92 mph12% whiff
CU22%71 mph27% whiff
FC20%90 mph19% whiff
Weather Impact
Oriole Park at Camden Yards
80°F9 mph wind
HR: 0.986 Total: 0.989
8mph in
Bullpen Comparison
BOS
3.09ERA
3.31FIP
9.69K/9
2.98BB/9
1.19WHIP
BAL
4.12ERA
3.78FIP
8.84K/9
3.63BB/9
1.31WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
BOS F5
2.6 runs
45.6% win
BAL F5
2.3 runs
38.2% win
F5 Total
4.9
NRFI
53.9%
YRFI
46.1%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.01
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
BOS8 injured
Ceddanne Rafaela CFDAY-TO-DAY
Tanner Houck SP60-DAY-IL
Garrett Crochet SP60-DAY-IL
Tyron Guerrero RP15-DAY-IL
Eduardo Rivera SP60-DAY-IL
Willson Contreras 1B10-DAY-IL
+2 more
BAL8 injured
Christian Franklin CF10-DAY-IL
Tyler O'Neill RF10-DAY-IL
Ryan Helsley RP60-DAY-IL
Felix Bautista RP60-DAY-IL
Colin Selby RP60-DAY-IL
Ryan Mountcastle 1B60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.